US DATA: Initial Jobless Claims Surprise Lower, Texas Fraud Still Seems Apparent
Sep-18 12:51
- Initial jobless claims were lower than expected at 231k (sa, cons 240k) in the week to Sep 13, a payrolls reference week.
- It follows a marginally upward revised 264k (initial 263k) in what was a much higher than expected print at the time after a spike in Texas initial claims in what has since been revealed as linked to ID fraud that has increased since Labor Day.
- There was only partial payback this week from Texas and with no revisions, suggesting there could still be an undue upward bias to the data, although that isn’t hugely surprising as it took a couple weeks for the data to be corrected and revised when Massachusetts reported fraud back in May 2023 (more on that here).
- Specifically, Texas initial claims were most recently reported at 26.9k (-5.0k on the week) having spiked 15.3k to 31.95k (initially reported as 31.91k) the previous week compared to a recent trend in the 16-18k mark. Taking that prior trend as a counterfactual, it very crudely implies about 10-15k of impact from fraud.
- The four-week average for national claims dipped 1k to a seasonally adjusted 240k after the 241k was its highest since June, although the latest figure could be perhaps 5k too high judging by two weeks of the aforementioned crude fraud impact.
- That should be seen in context of a pre-pandemic average of 218k in 2019, a period when the unemployment averaged just 3.7% compared to 4.3% in August. Of course, this is only one aspect of the labor market and doesn’t count for re-hiring prospects having lost a job, which are clearly weaker compared to 2019 when it comes to continuing claims, but it’s at least still a broadly encouraging underlying picture when it comes to layoffs.
- What's more, taking the data as a given, the latest 231k seasonally adjusted level of initial claims compares somewhat favorably to recent payrolls reference periods, with 234k in Aug, 221k in Jul and 246k in Jun, with the latter a recent peak for claims in reference periods.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BONDS: US Tsys and Gilt Roll Views
Aug-19 12:51
US Treasury and Gilt Rolls Views: This is a repeat, in case missed.
JPM:
- WNA: Mildly Bullish.
- USA: Mildly Bullish.
- UXY: Bearish.
- TYA: Bearish.
- FVA: Mildly Bearish.
- TUA: Neutral.
Barclays:
- WNA: Neutral.
- USA: Bullish.
- UXY: Neutral.
- TYA: Neutral.
- FVA: Bearish.
- TUA: Bearish.
Deutsche:
- USA: Bearish.
- UXY: Bearish.
- TYA: Bearish.
- FVA: Bearish.
- TUA: Bullish.
Gilt View:
- Barclays is mildly Bullish.
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Cautious Optimism After Ukraine Summit
Aug-19 12:38
Download Full Report Here
- President Donald Trump will sign a congressional bill at 13:00 ET 18:00 BST. Across the West Wing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will brief reporters at the same time.
- Yesterday, President Trump convened an extraordinary meeting of European leaders at the White House to discuss the next steps for ending the Ukraine war. The summit promised security guarantees for Ukraine and calmed nerves in Europe, following the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. Please find a comprehensive analysis of the summit inside.
- The House Republican Study Committee is hosting GOP staff this week for more discussions on a second reconciliation package.
- Hamas yesterday accepted an updated US-brokered ceasefire proposal for Gaza, in a last-ditch effort to avoid a major new Israeli offensive in Gaza.
- India, China, Russia, and Brazil have signalled closer cooperation in response to Trump’s trade war.
- Poll of the Day: The global political risk outlook worsened slightly month-on-month
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
CANADA: Core CPI Latest Trends
Aug-19 12:36
Core CPI (median & trim av - BoC focus):
% M/M: 0.18 in Jul'25 after 0.23 in Jun'25
% 3mth ar: 2.43 in Jul'25 after 3.39 in Jun'25
% 6mth ar: 3.01 in Jul'25 after 3.16 in Jun'25
% Y/Y: 3.05 in Jul'25 after 3.00 in Jun'25
CPI xFE (ex food & energy):
% M/M: 0.06 in Jul'25 after 0.19 in Jun'25
% 3mth ar: 2.09 in Jul'25 after 3.16 in Jun'25
% 6mth ar: 2.65 in Jul'25 after 3.05 in Jun'25
CPIX (ex 8 most volatile & indirect taxes):
% M/M: 0.06 in Jul'25 after 0.32 in Jun'25
% 3mth ar: 2.3 in Jul'25 after 3.87 in Jun'25
% 6mth ar: 2.46 in Jul'25 after 3.12 in Jun'25
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI
