US DATA: Initial Claims Tick Up For A Second Week To 233-234k, Per MNI Estimates

MNI estimates based on state-by-state data that initial jobless claims in the Oct 4 week of 233-234k (unrounded 233.5k) on a seasonally-adjusted basis, a notable rise from 224k (estimated) the prior week.

• If confirmed that would mark a second (unofficial) consecutive weekly increase and the largest rise in a month, as well as the the highest number of claims in 4 weeks.
• However, the higher claims weeks of late August/early September mean that the 4-week moving average continues to descend, to 227k in the latest week vs 234k prior, for a 7-week low.
• Also, there is likely to be a downward revision to those early September readings due to the identified Texas claims fraud that will very likely be revised at some point.
• As such excluding that Texas effect, overall claims have been hovering in a 217-237k range for the last 16 weeks, suggestive of a "low firing" labor market.
• MNI had estimated 223-225k initial claims in the prior week, dependent on the outcomes of Arizona, Massachusetts and US Virgin Islands claims which hadn't been published. While the Virgin Islands is still outstanding, the AZ and MA numbers were close enough to our estimates.
• This week, Hawaii (a relatively small state) and Massachusetts haven't reported. We assume the prior week's uptick was the usual seasonal norm for MA, and in the Oct 4 week it leveled off; however that assumption likely means that risks to our estimate are tilted slightly to the upside.
• One standout in the current week was Missouri whish saw a 3.9k uptick in claims (NSA), the largest rise since January and outside of the seasonal norms, though (obviously) no explanation was provided.
• The overall national NSA rise was 27.1k (to 206k), most since early June, though this was not outside of the seasonal norm.