US DATA: Initial Claims Remain Tame In Payrolls Reference Week
Initial jobless claims 224k (sa, cons 225k) in the week to Dec 13, covering a payrolls reference period, after 237k (initial 236k). This latest value compares with 222k from the November payrolls reference period, 231k in Oct, 232k in Sep and 234k in Aug.
- The 4-week average of 218k was a 3-week high (up from 217k prior) but still near the lowest levels since early 2025 and showing little meaningful sign of pickup. NSA claims fell 60k after the prior week's typical sizeable jump (117k).
- More concerning perhaps were continuing claims which printed 1,897k (sa) in the week to Dec 6 after a downward revised 1830k (initial 1838k), although this was below the expected 1920k and still below the 1900k handle for a second consecutive week (first time since May). NSA claims dropped 75k in the week.
- With the post-Thanksgiving, pre-Christmas being a key point in labor market seasonality (note recent volatility in initial), it's possible to look at individual weeks with some skepticism, but there's little here to suggest anything but that the labor market remains in low-hiring, low-firing mode.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bear Leg Extends
- RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
- RES 2: 6900.50 High Nov 12
- RES 1: 6793.65 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 6670.75 @ 14:32 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 6600.00 Round number support
- SUP 2: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
- SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend
S&P E-Minis maintain a softer short-term tone. The breach of support at 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bearish signals and signals scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. Note that price has also breached support at the 50-day EMA. An extension would open 6540.25, the Oct 10 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6793.65, the 20-day EMA.
GLOBAL: Reports Suggest China Diplomat Dissatisfied with Japan Meeting Outcome
- "*CHINA DIPLOMAT DISSATISFIED WITH RESULT OF JAPAN MEETING: PAPER" (BBG)
- "Chinese diplomat Liu Jinsong says he is “of course dissatisfied” with result of his meeting with Masaaki Kanai, the Japanese foreign ministry official in charge of Asia and Oceania affairs, Chinese news outlet The Paper reports."
- Earlier, the SCMP said Beijing could step up military and coastguard activities near Japan if tensions escalate further following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's provocative remarks on Taiwan, citing analysts.
- Indeed, Reuters wrote that Japan has warned its citizens in China to step up safety precautions and avoid crowded places, amid a deepening dispute between Asia's two largest economies over the new PM’s comments on Taiwan.
- ING have noted that the sudden escalation in Japan-China tensions has already triggered retaliatory measures from Beijing, including travel restrictions, aimed at hurting Japan’s profitable tourism business. They said that high-level diplomatic talks are already scheduled, and risks of further escalation do not seem too high.
BONDS: Rise In "Foreign" EGB Exposure May Represent Intra-EZ Reallocations
In the Eurozone, the reduction in ECB exposure is largely accounted for by “foreign” agents. However, the IMF dataset does not differentiate between intra-Eurozone and extra-Eurozone agents. We suspect that a good deal of increased “foreign” exposure represents reallocations across Eurozone countries.
- Note that both the Spanish and Portugues debt agencies have highlighted increased foreign demand in recent interviews with the MNI Policy Team.
- ECB monetary policy portfolio runoff looks set to continue for the foreseeable future. In a recent speech, Executive Board member Schnabel noted that “We expect that our monetary policy bond portfolios will be run down completely, unless monetary policy considerations were to require renewed asset purchases at some point in the future.”
- Across countries as of Q2 2025, the ECB had the largest footprint in the Netherlands (37.6% of total general government debt), following by Slovenia (36.1%) and Germany (31.1%).
- Foreign bank and non-bank ownership of EGBs is most visible in Belgium (48.1% of outstanding), Austria (44.9%) and Spain (34.8%).
