OIL: Initial 190k b/d Kurdish Oil Flows to Rise in Coming Months: SOMO

• The week’s data picks up significantly from tomorrow with the second estimate for Q2 national accounts and weekly jobless claims at 0830ET.
• The national accounts release offers first revisions to real GDP growth of 3.0% annualized in Q2 having surprised stronger in the flash release (then consensus 2.6%, GDPNow 2.9%) after -0.5% in Q1.
• Bloomberg consensus looks for a small upward revision to real GDP growth with 3.1% as private consumption being revised up two tenths to 1.6%.
• Smoothing the tariff-distorted quarters out, the average of 1.2% annualized for real GDP growth in 1H25 was a clear slowdown from the 2.5% through 2024.
• Domestic demand will continue to be watched for signs of underlying economic strength after PDFP slowed to 1.2% in Q2 for its slowest quarter since 4Q22. Similarly, the 1.6% in 1H25 followed 3.0% through 2024. Residential investment was a sizeable drag here with a -0.2pp contribution to GDP growth as the housing market remained under pressure.
• Core PCE inflation revisions for Q2 can also give hints as to what to expect in Friday’s monthly release for July (specifically for revisions to Q2 months of course, whilst we have seen unrounded core PCE estimates average 0.28% M/M for July). The median analyst looks for a very small upward revision to a rounded 2.6% from a starting point of 2.54% annualized, although currently only has 10 responses. 

RRP usage rebounds to $34.744B with 21 counterparties this afternoon, from $28.574B yesterday. Compares to $22.344B on Tuesday, Aug 19 - lowest since April 5, 2021 vs. this year's high usage of $460.731B on June 30.

Analysis from G. Elliott Morris on an August Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll shows that the Democratic Party holds a slight advantage over the Republican Party on the generic ballot. 

• Morris notes: "If the 2026 midterms were held today, 49% say they would back the Democratic candidate in their local House district, 41% the Republican candidate, and 10% remain undecided or say they aren't sure. Among decided voters, that's an eight-point Democratic lead."
• Morris adds: "The 49% figure for Democrats is the largest we've recorded for the party so far, but these margins are statistically indistinguishable from our prior polls... so while the point estimate has bounced, the underlying picture is of a stable, modest Democratic advantage."
• The survey comes as Democrats register a ballot box success, flipping an open Iowa state Senate seat in a special election yesterday, breaking the GOP’s supermajority in the state’s upper house.
• DNC Chair Ken Martin said yesterday evening, noting that President Donald Trump won the Iowa district by 11 points in the 2024 presidential election, that voters "are putting Republicans on notice".

Figure 1: "Percent responding to the question "If the 2026 general election for Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your local Congressional district?""

Source: G. Elliott Morris, Strength in Numbers