POLAND: ING Forecast 50bp May Cut, 125bps Total in 2025
Apr-30 12:18
* ING forecast that in the second half of 2025, with the expiration of the July 2024 energy price ...
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US TSY OPTIONS: May'25 10Y Call Tree Buy
Mar-31 12:18
- +15,000 TYK5 111.75/112.75/113 broken call trees, 0.0 ref 111-18.5
EGBS: /STIR: German CPI Meets MNI Tracking, Markets Little Changed
Mar-31 12:09
The German national CPI prints were in line with our tracking estimates, as mentioned in recent bullets, explaining the lack of post-data movement in markets.
- Bund and Euribor futures essentially unchanged over the data. The former prints ~129.15, while Euribor futures are 2.0-5.5bp higher vs. settlement, holding onto some of the tariff worry-driven gains seen earlier today.
- ECB-dated OIS equally unmoved after pulling back from dovish session extremes as core global FI faded from session highs.
- ~85% odds of a cut showing for next month’s meeting, with ~63bp of easing priced through year-end. ’25 meeting contracts 0.5-3.0bp more dovish on the day.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Apr-25 | 2.204 | -21.3 |
Jun-25 | 2.028 | -38.9 |
Jul-25 | 1.958 | -45.9 |
Sep-25 | 1.858 | -55.9 |
Oct-25 | 1.828 | -58.9 |
Dec-25 | 1.785 | -63.2 |
GERMAN DATA: Rounded HICP a tenth below consensus; CPI in line with tracking est
Mar-31 12:02
- German HICP came in a tenth below consensus at 2.3%Y/Y (versus consensus of 2.4%Y/Y, prior 2.6%) with the M/M print at 0.4% (0.4% consensus although 0.5% was the modal expectation and analysts were split between 0.3-0.5%).
- The national CPI came in at 2.2%Y/Y (MNI tracking 2.2-2.3%, consensus 2.2%, prior 2.3%), M/M at 0.3% (in line with MNI tracking of 0.3-0.4% and consensus of 0.3%).
