NOKSEK is up 0.45% today at 0.9499, now 1.5% above Monday’s 0.9354 low. After selling off sharply in late-June (a combination of a dovish Norges Bank decision, pullback in brent crude and a technical break), the cross has consolidated between 0.9329 (June 26 low) and 0.9542 (July 3 high). A clear break of the July 3 high is required to signal a bullish theme.
- This week’s positive momentum has been a function of:
- Crude oil futures jumping on the new early August deadline for a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire, after Trump yesterday gave Russia 10 more days to halt fighting.
- Digestion of the weekend EU-US trade agreement. Although this reduces near-term policy uncertainty, it will exert a toll on Sweden’s export-sensitive economy.
- The weak Swedish flash Q2 GDP reading (0.1% Q/Q vs 0.3% cons). While the flash indicator should be taken with a handful of salt, the broad message of subdued growth momentum is supportive of market expectations for one more Riksbank cut this year.
- Swedish consumer confidence saw a notable improvement to 90.7 in July (vs 84.9 prior) this morning, but this wasn’t a market mover.
- EURNOK is down 0.2%, piercing support at the 50-day EMA (11.7647 today) at typing. A clear breach of this average would expose 11.6946, the 50% retracement of the June 18 - July 17 rally.