SOUTH AFRICA: Inflation Inches Higher, SARB To Release Monetary Policy Review
- South Africa's headline inflation accelerated to +3.4% Y/Y in September from +3.3% prior and core inflation edged higher to +3.2% Y/Y from +3.1%, both falling in line with Bloomberg consensus. This came as market participants are trying to estimate the odds of a rate cut at the SARB's final monetary policy meeting this year on November 20.
- Suspended Police Minister Senzo Mchunu wrapped up his parliamentary testimony on Wednesday, with his predecessor Bheki Cele set to testify today. Mchunu insisted that the decision to disband the Political Killings Task Team (PKTT) was his alone, but News24 reported that there was evidence that he had collaborators.
- The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is due to meet tomorrow and analysts believe that South Africa could be taken off the watchdog's grey list after implementing all 22 required action items.
- The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will publish its bi-annual Monetary Policy Review at 17:00BST/18:00SAST.
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GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $3831.4 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: $3759.2 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $3756.3 @ 07:27 BST Sep 23
- SUP 1: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22
- SUP 2: $3594.0 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3484.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20
Gold is in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. A fresh all-time high once again, yesterday and today, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3783.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3594.0, the 20-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $66.15 @ 07:10 BST Sep 23
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures remain above the Sep 5 low. Recent short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.
EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 174.50 High Sep 19
- PRICE: 174.28 @ 07:16 BST Sep 23
- SUP 1: 173.14/171.93 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1
The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and price is trading at its recent highs. The cross last week breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.14, the 20-day EMA.
