SOUTH AFRICA: Inflation Inches Higher, SARB To Release Monetary Policy Review

• RES 4: $3831.4 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: $3759.2 - Intraday high             
• PRICE: $3756.3 @ 07:27 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $3683.8 - Low Sep 22  
• SUP 2: $3594.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3484.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold is in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. A fresh all-time high once again, yesterday and today, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3783.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3594.0, the 20-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.15 @ 07:10 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain above the Sep 5 low. Recent short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.50 High Sep 19 
• PRICE: 174.28 @ 07:16 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 173.14/171.93 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and price is trading at its recent highs. The cross last week breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.14, the 20-day EMA.