SWEDEN: Inflation Expectations Remain Well Anchored
May-16 06:37
Swedish money market participants’ inflation expectations remained anchored in May, with 1-year and 5-year ahead CPIF expectations remaining at 2.0%, and 2-year ahead expectations falling a touch to 1.9% (vs 2.0% prior).
- All Executive Board members emphasised the importance of well-anchored medium-term inflation expectations in the May Riksbank meeting minutes.
- 1-year and 2-year ahead annual GDP growth expectations were each revised a tenth higher (1-year to 1.0%, 2-year to 2.1%).
- The 3-month ahead policy rate was seen at 3.7%, indicating that respondents view a June Riksbank cut as unlikely.
- Full details from Prospera below:
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Clears The 50-Day EMA
Apr-16 06:36
- RES 4: 5400.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5285.00/5333.50 High Apr 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5221.49 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5159.12 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 5095.25 @ 07:24 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: 5081.25 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5100.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 5070.36 38.2% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5018.00 Low Feb 21
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces the current condition - the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 5070.36 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 5018.00, the Feb 21 low. Firm resistance is seen at 5221.49, the 20-day EMA.
BUNDS: US Treasuries keep the pressure on EGBs
Apr-16 06:36
- Just a 9 ticks swing in Bund post UK data, with initial bid going through, but these were tiny moves.
- Nonetheless, Bund is back at testing session low, again US Treasuries led, with Tnotes through its session low.
- Some will look for support in Bund at 131.23, the 2024 low, but in terms of Yield, better support will be seen towards the 131.00 figure (2024 high in Yield).
- Resistance moves to 132.52 area, followed by 133.24.
- Today includes, Italy final CPI, German ZEW, and US IP.
- SUPPLY: UK 10yr Linker, shouldn't impact Gilt, Netherlands €5bn 2024, should weigh into the bidding deadline, Finland 5s, 30s, should have no impact.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Rehn, Villeroy, Vujcic, BoE Clare Lombardelli testifies, Bailey, Fed Jefferson, Williams, Barkin, Collins, and given the US Data beat of late, main focus will be on Powell.
UK DATA: GBPUSD possible reversal if STIR markets see more rate cut expectations
Apr-16 06:29
- Looking a bit more at the market reaction - GBPUSD is down just under 20 pips since its pre-data levels while EURGBP is little changed.
- There could be more pushback on GBP FX weakness after STIR markets open at 7:30BST if SONIA markets push rate expectations back further here.
