SWEDEN: Inflation Expectations Remain Well-Anchored
Swedish money market player expectations remain well anchored around the 2% target, according to the latest survey from Prospera. The Riksbank have been encouraged by the stability of expectations in recent months, and today's data will do little to change this view.
- 5-year ahead CPIF expectations rose a touch to 2.1% Y/Y (vs 2.0% prior), while both 1- and 2-year ahead expectations were 1.9% Y/Y.
- Comparing to the latest quarterly Economic Tendency Survey (from January), industry expectations were also well-anchored, with 1-year ahead inflation expectations at 1.7% in Q4 '23 (vs 2.2% in Q3).
- Prospera survey participants also noted a more optimistic view of GDP growth in the near-term. 1-year ahead annual GDP growth expectations rose to 0.6% (vs 0.2% prior) while 2-year ahead expectations rose to 2.0% (vs 1.8% prior).
- The next quarterly survey is due on March 15. This survey includes expectations from employer/employee organisations and purchasing managers alongside those from money market players.
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MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B
- MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$260.2B
- US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$126.1B
USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
- RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 1.3542 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 1.3465 @ 16:22 GMT Jan 19
- SUP 1: 1.3407/3343 20-day EMA / Low Jan 12
- SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
- SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope
USDCAD maintains a firmer tone. This week’s rally has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3459. The break higher confirms an extension of the corrective bull cycle that started Dec 27 last year and has opened 1.3538, 50.0% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break would open 1.3608, the Dec 13 high. Support to watch is 1.3343, the Jan 12 low. Initial support is at 1.3407, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6639 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6584 @ 16:20 GMT Jan 19
- SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
- SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
- SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following this week’s bearish price action. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6639, the 50-day EMA.
