BELGIUM: Inflation Accelerates in June

Jun-27 11:31

HICP inflation accelerated in June in Belgium, to +5.5% Y/Y (vs +4.9% prior) according to the Statbel flash estimate. Leaving aside a stall last month, this is the sixth consecutive increase and the highest yearly rate since January 2023. While recent headline upticks were largely energy-driven, services inflation, which remains under elevated scrutiny in the whole Eurozone, also accelerated this month.

  • National CPI, on which more underlying information is available in the flash release, accelerated to 3.74% Y/Y (from 3.36%). On a sequential comparison, CPI rose by 0.22% M/M (vs a 0.12% 2016-2023 June average).
  • Core inflation (excl. energy and unprocessed food) came in at 2.97% Y/Y vs 2.80% in May. Underlying services inflation also accelerated, to 4.55% Y/Y (vs 3.88% May). In particular, hospitality and communications inflation printed higher in June than in May.
  • Elsewhere, the energy category printed at +15.10% Y/Y vs +11.17% May, and food prices (incl. alcoholic beverages) increased +0.31% Y/Y in June (vs +1.0%).
  • Belgium makes up 3.8% of the total Eurozone HICP basket. While its contribution to the overall print will henceforth be limited, the details of the national release again pointed towards ongoing stickiness of services inflation.

MNI, Statbel

Historical bullets

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread buyer

May-28 11:23

0RM4 97.12/97.37cs, bought for 2.25 in 6k.

NORWAY: 2024 and 2025 Oil and Gas Investment Estimates Revised Higher

May-28 11:22

Respondents to Statistics Norway’s Q2 oil and gas investment survey revised up their expectations for 2024 and 2025 investments.

  • Total 2025 investments including pipeline transportation were estimated at NOK216bln, 5.2% above the Q1 ‘24 survey’s estimate. “The increased estimate for field development is partly related to the fact that a PUD has been delivered for a new development project”.
  • 2024 investments are expected at NOK247bln, 1.3% higher than estimated last quarter. “It is increased estimates within fields on stream and exploration that drive the increase from the previous survey”.
  • The chart below shows that estimates provided in this survey are generally revised higher over time, with the current estimate for 2024 investments 36% higher than the indication provided in the Q2 ’23 survey.
  • Statistics Norway notes that the increase in 2024 estimates were driven by (1) high price growth due to the weakening NOK, (2) faster roll-out of some developments relative to initial plans and (3) higher development costs than initially estimated.
  • Statistics Norway do not expect these drivers to be present to the same extent in 2025, which should contribute to only “modest increases” in the investment estimates for 2025 going forward.

GBP: Cable targets next resistance

May-28 11:19
  • Cable is slowly pushing towards the next immediate resistance seen at 1.2803 High Mar 21.
  • GBPJPY and the 200.547 level is still holding, so far printed a 200.533 high.
  • Similar to GBPJPY, AUDJPY also eye 104.943, the 2024 high and the highest print since 2013.