NORWAY: Industry Should Make Positive Contribution To Mainland Value Added In Q1
May-08 06:36
Norwegian manufacturing industrial production was flat in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, pulling 3m/3m growth down to 1.6% (vs 2.8% prior). That still indicates a positive contribution from industry to Q1 mainland value added, consistent with the expansionary industrial confidence indicator.
- Notably, momentum in non-petroleum related manufacturing industries has shown signs of recovery, albeit from a low base. 3m/3m growth was 2.1% in March (vs 3.5% prior), with intermediate goods growing 1.0%, capital goods 0.3% and consumer goods 1.6%.
- From Stats Norway: “It was especially the oil refining, chemical and pharmaceutical industries that contributed most to the overall recovery with a clear growth of 8.9 percent. The increase in this industry group comes after low production in November and December due, among other things, to several shutdowns at some key players”.
- 3m/3m growth in headline IP (80% of which is extraction and related services) was -1.3%, likely weighed down by the Q1 pullback in crude oil and natural gas prices.
- This morning’s domestic focus is the Norges Bank decision at 0900BST/1000CET. This Board is likely to hold rates at 4.50% and maintain guidance that "the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025". (MNI preview here).
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CHINA: Country Wrap: State Funds to buy Stocks
Apr-08 06:35
- News that China's state backed funds are planning to step in to buy markets and stabilize things gave bourses a boost today as the likelihood of policy intervention grows. Key state owned fund China Reform Holdings said it will invest $10bn in shares to support the market. (source: MNI – Market News)
- Of the 27 Chinese cities that logged a gross domestic product of over CNY1 trillion (USD136.8 billion) last year, industrial production increased by more in 19 of them compared with the national level in the first two months of the year. The industrial output of enterprises above the designated size, which refers to those with an annual revenue of at least CNY20 million (USD2.7 million), in Xi'an, Hefei, and Yantai rose 16.4 percent, 13.4 percent, and 10.2 percent, respectively, in January and February from a year earlier, according to official figures. (source Yicai)
- China's major bourses all rallied today with the Hang Seng better by +0.35%, CSI 300 +0.60%, Shanghai +0.50% and Shenzhen the outlier down -0.25%.
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.2038 Per USD; Estimate 7.3297
- Bonds: a giveback in bonds today with the CGB 10YR higher by +1.5bp to 1.65%
BUNDS: A Volatile but lighter Overnight session for Bund
Apr-08 06:30
- While Bund saw a fairly volatile Overnight session (51 ticks range), volumes have been on the lower side, just compared to the last heavy sessions, the contract has been mostly been quoted 2 ticks wide, helping exacerbate the wide range.
- Tariffs headlines will continue to drive multi cross assets, Trump has threatened another 50% on China, which would bring the rate above 100% Yesterday.
- Small support in Bund is at 129.62, followed by the 129.02 gap.
- Resistance moves down to 130.36, followed by 130.91 initially.
- There are no Tier 1 Data for today, US Wholesales Inventory will be final reading.
- SUPPLY: Netherlands 2032 (would equate to 14.6k Bund) won't impact the contract, UK 2.25bn 2054 (equates to 32.7k Gilt) will weigh, Germany €3bn green Bund (equates to 29.4k Bund) could weigh, US sells $58bn of 3yr notes.
- SYNDICATION: EU is due to hold 2.50% Oct-52.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Guindos, Holzmann, Cipollone, BoE Lombardelli, Fed Daly.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Has Traded Through The 20-Day EMA
Apr-08 06:25
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 120.12 High High Mar 4
- RES 2: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 119.07 High Apr 4
- PRICE: 117.59 @ 07:09 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: 117.41 50.0% retracement of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 116.89 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 116.53 76.4% retracement of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Mar 14
BTP futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A resumption of the bull cycle would signal scope for an extension towards 119.31, the Mar 4 low and gap high on the daily chart. On the downside, the 20-day EMA has been breached. This undermines the bull theme. The next support to watch lies at 117.41, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would strengthen a bearish threat.
