HUNGARY: Industrial Production Y/Y Highest Since Feb’24, But Still Negative
- Hungary's workday-adjusted industrial output slipped 1% y/y in July versus -4.9% in June. That was above expectations of a steeper 3.2% decline, as per an analyst survey, and marks the highest for the series since February 2024. On a monthly basis, industrial production rose 2% m/m compared to a prior -1.2% in June – also the highest reading since February last year.
- The Hungarian statistics office noted that output fell in most branches of manufacturing. Output was up in the automotive sector, in the food, drinks and tobacco segment and the computer, electronics and optical equipment sector but was down in the electrical equipment segment. A detailed release will be published on September 12.
- No other major data releases are scheduled for today. CPI data for August (Est: +4.3% y/y; Prior: +4.3%) provides the highlight of the week next week. Minutes of the NBH’s previous rate-setting meeting are also due.
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USDCAD TECHS: Slips Sharply on USD Downdraft
- RES 4: 1.4111 Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 1.3768 @ 07:57 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: 1.3732/3557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
A short-term bullish corrective phase in USDCAD remains in play despite sharp weakness Friday. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3743 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of 1.3798 represents an important short-term bullish development, signaling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 1.3920 next, the May 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3732, the 20-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 92.42/92.46.
AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6530/6625 High Jul 29 / 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6491 @ 07:57 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness. Last week, the pair traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermined the recent bullish theme and signals the likely start of a corrective cycle. Note that support 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has also been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger.
