Industrial Prod M/M Tracking Broadly in Line with Consensus
Dec-12 11:00
Eurozone October industrial production is due for release Friday, with our tracking estimate pointing to a reading between -0.1% and 0.0% M/M, broadly in line with the Bloomberg consensus for a flat M/M print. We also estimate an upward revision to the September reading from -2.0% to -1.5% M/M.
- Despite only a marginal fall on the pan-EZ number, IP fell in four of the seven largest Eurozone members in October. German IP fell 1.1% M/M (-2.4% prior) - the second consecutive monthly fall contributing around -0.4ppts to the Eurozone wide industrial production reading in October. Belgian IP saw a fall of 6.2% M/M contributing -0.2ppts to the Eurozone wide reading (the second time this year we have seen a fall of at least 6%). French IP declined 0.2% M/M (vs -0.7% prior) and the Netherlands recorded a decrease of 0.4% M/M (following -2.4% in September).
- The weakness in the EZ print was restricted by Ireland which recorded an increase in IP of 5.7% M/M (reversing most of September's fall of 5.5%). Spain also printed a gain of 1.0% M/M for the second successive month, repeating the highest sequential reading since February 2024.
- Italy recorded a flat sequential reading in October (vs a fall of 0.3% in September).
- Note, Eurostat uses industrial production numbers excluding construction, so the above country numbers may not reflect what was published as headline IP data from the national statistics agencies.
- The underlying member country weak performance and survey data such as PMIs point to a likelihood of a third successive quarterly drop in IP in Q4.
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US NFIB OCT SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 93.7
Nov-12 11:07
- US NFIB OCT SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 93.7
US: EU: Final Day Of Commissioner Hearings Underway, Exec VPs Face MEPs Questions
Nov-12 10:59
The Commissioners-designate to serve as High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Executive VP for Cohesion and Reforms, Estonia's Kaja Kallas and Italy's Raffaele Fitto respectively, are coming towards the end of their hearings before the relevant European Parliament committees.
- Livestreams here (Kallas) and here (Fitto). Later today, Romania’s Roxana Mînzatu (Exec VP for People, Skills, Preparedness, S&D) and France’s Stéphane Séjourné (Exec VP Industrial Strategy, RE) face questions at 1430CET. Hearings conclude with 1830CET session involving Spain’s Teresa Ribera (Exec VP Energy Transition, S&D) and Finland’s Henna Virkkunen (Exec VP Tech Sovereignty & Security, EPP).
- Some of Kallas' comments: she supports EU-Mercosur trade deal ("this void will be filled by China...If we are not there, they are."); supports permanent sanctions on Russia; she supports use of frozen Russian assets held in the EU to rebuild Ukraine; on China: "China has changed over the past two years it is now more a competitor and systemic rival,"
- Fitto, hailing from the right-leaning European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group has received a more hostile reception than Kallas. As Politico reports, "If Fitto fails to get the support of [moderates], and if he misses the two-thirds majority of votes among coordinators, he can still be confirmed by a simple majority within the regional affairs committee. However, to do so he would need backing from the far-right group ESN, which includes Germany’s AfD. For the German center-right party CDU — a member of the EPP group — that would be politically difficult to handle"
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX 50 Beat Threat Remains Present
Nov-12 10:58
- In the equity space, bullish conditions in S&P E-Minis remain intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, Nov 4 low. The latest rally resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The 6000.0 psychological handle has been pierced. Sights are on 6070.16, a 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing. Initial support is at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high.
- A bearish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions and confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle. The contract has pierced 4815.50, the 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4757.00, the Sep 6 / 10 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, the Nov high, where a break would instead highlight a reversal.
