EM ASIA CREDIT: Indonesia: CDS Eyed For Further Signs Of Stress/Concern

Bitcoin had a range over the weekend of $88,398.00k - $90,646.94k, Asia is currently trading around $89,400k, +1.05%. Bitcoin slipped lower over the weekend and opened weaker again in Asia before early demand has seen it bounce back toward $90k. The range for the moment looks to be $84k-$96k, technically though it is still in a downtrend so while this remains the case bounces back towards the $96-$101k area looks like it would be faded initially. First support remains back toward the $84k-$86k area, a break below here and the market will again turn its focus back to the $70k-$75k support. 

• EndGame Macro on X: “It’s also worth remembering that Bitcoin has never lived through a long, credit driven recession and the closest test was 2020, which quickly turned into a liquidity flood. So in the early stages of stress, it tends to behave like a high beta risk asset, not a shelter. That’s why moves like this are often the market quietly saying it wants less risk on the books, not more.”
• Bitcoin’s Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: $2,903 

Fig 1: Bitcoin spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• Following on from the release of further price decrease in new and used homes, November property Investment and Property Sales fell to lows of the year.  
• Property Investment YTD YoY fell -15.9%, the lowest in more than 3-Years.
• New home sales value fell -11.2% YoY, new property construction fell -20.5% YoY.  
• The fall in Residential Property sales accelerated in November to -11.2%, from -9.4% YoY, the largest drop in 2025.  
• The combined result is the worst in 5-Years
• The weakness in consumer is the challenge right now as the property sector declines continue.  Finding a way of halting the slide in prices and hence investment must be key to start the process of rebuilding consumer sentiment. 

The BBDXY range Friday night was 1206.07 - 1208.53, Asia is currently trading around 1206, -0.02%. The USD has failed to react to a weak close in US stocks or US yields in the long-end moving higher. Is it lagging or correctly seeing the moves as unconvincing that probably won’t follow through, or could it also be pricing in the potential Supreme Court decision that some believe is imminent. On the day look for initial resistance again back towards the 1208-1209 area and above here the more important 1212-1214 area where sellers should remerge initially. Support is in the 1204/05 area; a move below here would target 1198-1200. 

• The move in metals is gaining real traction and is providing real headwinds for the USD as the “debasement theory” again comes to the fore.
• Barron’s: “The Supreme Court could soon rule whether President Donald Trump’s tariffs are legal—a decision that will have far-reaching implications on the extent of the president’s powers.”   https://www.barrons.com/articles/supreme-court-trump-tariff-decision-case-41bd5ce4
• The BBDXY Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 379 Points

Fig 1: BBDXY Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P