INDONESIA: Bond Wrap.
Oct-17 05:20
- Indonesia’s central bank kept its key interest rate steady as expected, pausing an easing cycle as external risks drag on the rupiah currency (source: BBG).
- Bank Indonesia sees room for further monetary easing while keeping in mind the outlook for inflation, rupiah exchange rate and economic growth, Governor Warjiyo says, after it kept the key rate steady on Wednesday. Policy focus in the short-term is the rupiah’s stability (source: BBG).
- Equity markets reacted well to the Central Bank decision with the Jakarta composite up +0.91% and 10-year yields lower.
2yr 6.393% (+1bp) 5yr 6.417% (-0.5bp) 10yr 6.658% (-2bp) 30yr 6.937%
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Sep-17 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 17-Sep | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions & Expectations Index |
| 17-Sep | 1400 | EU | ECB's Elderson in supervisory effectiveness panel |
| 18-Sep | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) / Construction Production |
| 18-Sep | 1400 | EU | MNI Connect Video on Euro Area Macro Projections |
| 19-Sep | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19-Sep | 1000 | EU | ECB's Schnabel on Monetary Policy discussion |
| 19-Sep | 1540 | EU | ECB's Schnabel chairs Jean Monnet Lecture |
| 20-Sep | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Sep | 745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 20-Sep | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 20-Sep | 1600 | EU | ECB's Lagarde Banking Lecture Organised by the IMF |
| 20-Sep | 1630 | EU | ECB's Lagarde converses with IMF Georgieva |
| 23-Sep | 745 | EU | ECB's Elderson at Real Estate summit |
| 23-Sep | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Sep | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Sep | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Sep | 1400 | EU | ECB's Cipollone statement on digital euro at Hearing |
| 23-Sep | 1630 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in discussion at House of the euros |
GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Firmer Tone
Sep-17 05:16
- RES 4: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3266 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3238 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 1.3201 @ 06:15 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: 1.3094/3002 20-day EMA / Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 1.2986 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2895 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - 27 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2852 Low Aug 16
GBPUSD bounced off last week’s lows and the pair traded higher Monday, extending the latest recovery. The recent move down is considered corrective and this allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance and bull trigger at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. For bears, a resumption of the downleg would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2986.
JGBS: Cash Bond Yields Mostly Lower, US Retail Sales Later Today
Sep-17 05:02
JGB futures are stronger, currently mid-range, trading at +16 compared to settlement levels following yesterday’s public holiday.
- (MNI) The BoJ board will consider leaving its policy interest unchanged at 0.25% when it hands down its decision on Friday, despite the belief among policymakers that the economy and prices are largely moving in line with projections.
- The upside risk to prices driven by high import costs – a key concern for policymakers in July – has fallen due to the yen's appreciation, allowing the Bank more time to watch price moves without the need to raise the policy rate for now.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session. Today's US calendar sees Retail Sales, Industrial Production and a 20y bond auction.
- The cash JGB curve continues to hold a twist-flattening, pivoting at the 2-year, with yields 1.8bps higher to 3.1bps lower.
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower out to 30-year and 2bps higher beyond.
- The local data calendar has been light today, with the July tertiary industry index due later.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance and Core Machine Orders data alongside 1-year supply and BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-25-year JGBs.
