INDIA: India Updated Swaps Pricing Vs. Pre-RBI Meeting Levels
- We assess the change in expectations for rate move via an analysis of the swaps curve. We compare the three month on a forward basis each month out to 12 months. We look to use this as an indicator for a change in expectations from week to week, comparing it to the FBIL Overnight Mumbai Interbank Outright Rate (FBIL- Overnight MIBOR) as per market standard.
- The swaps curve has 1bps of increases over the next 12 months up from 4bps earlier this week. By way of comparison, the BBG MIPR function has decreases of -13bps over the next 12 months, up from -11bp.
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JGBS AUCTION: Poll: 2-Year JGB Auction
*JAPAN 2Y GOVT BOND AUCTION MAY HAVE 100.09 LOWEST PRICE:POLL – BLOOMBERG
US-CHINA: Trump Pushes Back On Speculation For Meeting With China's Xi
US President Trump posted via Truth Social that he is not seeking a a summit with China President Xi Jinping. The full post is below. This comes as US and China officials are set to meet for the second day of trade talks in Stockholm. A potential meeting between Trump and XI was reportedly set to be part of the agenda of the talks.
- "The Fake News is reporting that I am SEEKING a “Summit” with President Xi of China. This is not correct, I am not SEEKING anything! I may go to China, but it would only be at the invitation of President Xi, which has been extended. Otherwise, no interest! Thank you for your attention to this matter."
- Also noted the FT reported overnight: " The US has frozen restrictions on technology exports to China to avoid hurting trade talks with Beijing and help President Donald Trump secure a meeting with President Xi Jinping this year, the FT reports, citing people familiar with the matter." (via BBG).
- Rtrs headlines have also just crossed that Nvidia has placed fresh orders with TSMC for 300k in H20 chips, as demand from China is very strong, but that the US Commerce Department is yet to approve the company's export licenses for the H20.
AUSTRALIA: NZ Q2 Core CPI Suggests Small Moderation In Australia
With Australia’s Q2 CPI data released on Wednesday, it is worth looking at NZ developments given the high correlation between the two countries’ inflation rates. With Australia’s headline CPI impacted by government electricity rebates, it is hard to infer any trends. However, the trimmed mean has a 3-year rolling correlation of around 90% with the RBNZ’s measure of core. The two were in line in Q1 at 2.9% and NZ’s Q2 outcome of 2.8% suggests that Australia’s may also post a small decline. This result would be above the RBA’s May Q2 forecast of 2.6% though.
Australia vs NZ underlying inflation y/y%
- NZ-Australia services CPIs also have a correlation of around 90% and in Q2 NZ’s picked up to 4.7% y/y from 4.2%. Q2 seasonally sees an increase in the quarterly rate in services but it would have to be above 1.0% q/q in Australia for the annual rate also to pick up. However, NZ non-tradeables inflation moderated 0.3pp to 3.7% y/y in Q2.
- Both services and non-tradeables in NZ continue to run above Australia’s, as has been the case since mid-2023.
- RBA Governor Bullock noted that in the monthly CPI data durable goods prices were a bit higher. NZ’s goods inflation was steady at 1.4% y/y in Q2. The 3-year rolling correlation between Aus-NZ goods inflation has picked up recently to around 95%.
Australia-NZ core CPI y/y% correlations
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG/RBNZ
