INDIA: India Updated Swaps Pricing  Vs. Pre-RBI Meeting Levels

Large inflows across major markets was the theme last week, despite India seeing large outflow on Thursday and flows tapering off on Friday for other markets. 

• South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$84m Friday, bringing the 5-day total to +$1,796m. 2025 to date flows are -$7,777. The 5-day average is +$359m, the 20-day average is +$184m and the 100-day average of -$85m.
• Taiwan: Had outflows of -$5m as of Friday, with total inflows of +$2,242 m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$10,373. The 5-day average is +$448m, the 20-day average of +$63m and the 100-day average of -$112m.
• India: Had outflows of -$383m as of the 12th, with total inflows of +$391m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$10,577m.  The 5-day average is +$78m, the 20-day average of -$24m and the 100-day average of -$86m.
• Indonesia: Had inflows of +$29m Friday, with total inflows of +$36m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$2,934m.  The 5-day average is +$7m, the 20-day average +$14m and the 100-day average -$29m.
• Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$10m as of Friday, with inflows totaling +$18m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,148m. The 5-day average is +$4m, the 20-day average of -$23m and the 100-day average of -$21m.
• Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$50m as of Friday, totaling -$105m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,620m. The 5-day average is -$24m, the 20-day average of -$28m and the 100-day average of -$24m.
• Philippines: Saw inflows of +$12m yesterday, with net outflows of -$1m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$515m. The 5-day average is $0m, the 20-day average of -$15m the 100-day average of -$5m.

The highlight of the week, which doesn’t include many events, will be May jobs data on Thursday. Bloomberg consensus is expecting that the status quo continued last month with Australia’s labour market remaining tight. A 20k rise in new jobs is forecast, in line with the 3-month average, with the unemployment and participation rates stable at 4.1% and 67.1% respectively. 

• Westpac’s lead index for May is released on Wednesday. It posted two straight monthly falls in March and April but the 6-month rate, which leads detrended growth by 3 to 9 months, remains positive. While it continues to signal a recovery over H2 it is now suggesting that it should be slower. April fell 0.01% m/m to be up 0.2% 6m/6m annualised down from 0.5%.
• There are no RBA events this week.

• For a second consecutive month, China's industrial production grew less than the prior month.  
• Peaking in March just prior to the implementation of tariffs at +7.7% May's result was lower at +5.8%.  
• The 3 year average for Industrial Production expansion is +4.5%
• Mining was flat on last month at +5.7%.
• Manufacturing was lower at +6.2% (from +6.6%)
• Auto manufacturing rose by +11.2%