OIL PRODUCTS: India Shifting Gasoil Exports to Africa/South America

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said that the drone incident at Copenhagen Airport on the night of 22 September was "an attack", saying they were the "most serious" incidents to affect critical infrastructure "to date". Speaking to reporters, Frederiksen said the incident, which also saw drones flying near Oslo Airport in Norway, resulting in the grounding of flights, must be seen in the light of other incidents affecting NATO member states in recent weeks. These include mass drone incursions in Poland and Romania, airspace incursions in Estonia, and cyberattacks on airports in the UK, Belgium, and Germany. The PM said she "cannot deny in any way that it was Russia" behind the incursion at Katsrup. 

• For the PM, the incursion comes at an inopportune moment as her centre-left Social Democrats are engaged in a ministerial reshuffle. TV2 reports "Tax Minister Rasmus Stoklund will become the new Minister of Immigration and Integration, taking over the position from Kaare Dybvad Bek. Dybvad Bek will become Minister of Employment, while Ane Halsboe-Jørgensen will become Minister of Taxation."
• Stoklund is viewed as sitting on the right of the party and taking on the immigration portfolio could prove better placed to head off attacks from the right-wing nationalist Danish People's Party, which has recovered support in recent months.
• The next election is not due until Oct 2026 at the latest. Nevertheless, two of the past four Voxmeter polls have shown the right-leaning 'blue bloc' ahead of the Social Democrat-led 'red bloc', potentially spurring action from Frederisken to bolster party support. 

BTP Block trade, suggest buyer:

• IKZ5 1.13k at 119.77.

• Bund futures are -1 tick at 128.235, towards the middle/lower end of their session range as markets digest this morning’s September flash PMIs, sovereign supply and an uptick in equity/oil futures.
• Bunds saw some contained two-way swings around the German & French PMIs (political uncertainty and soft prices biased the French readings lower, while German readings were mixed, with output prices on the firmer side). The Eurozone-wide composite PMI was very slightly above consensus at 51.2 (vs 51.1 cons, 51.0 prior).
• Initial technical areas of interest in Bunds remain intact: Support around 128.01 (Sep 23 low) and 128.04, resistance at the 20-day EMA of 128.60.
• The German curve is lightly twist flatter (2-year yields up 0.5bps, 30-year yields down 1bp), with Schatz supply weighing into the 1030BST bidding deadline. The Schatz results were acceptable, albeit with slightly softer cover ratios than the previous outing.
• 30-year DDA books closed in excess of E32bln. Portugal is also holding a syndication today.
• 10-Year EGB spreads to Bunds are little changed to ~1bp tighter. No real signs of weakness for DSLs & PGBs around the ongoing syndication processes, with 10-Year PGBs actually outperforming on the day.
• ECB’s Kocher and Cipollone are scheduled to speak later today.