EU: INDIA-COM Laments Lack Of FTA Progress, Demures On Zapad Participation
As MNI noted earlier (see 'INDIA: EU "Strategic Agenda" Pushes for Closer Defense, Trade Ties With India, 12:05BST), the Commission has published its "new strategic agenda to raise bilateral relations with India to a higher level." Link to the joint communication can be found here, and a presser involving Trade and Economic Security Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and HR for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas here.
- The joint communications states that "While the EU and India may not align on every issue, this partnership is underpinned by converging interests, complementary strengths, and shared political will, and can deliver real impact for people in both regions and beyond."
- Following his visit to India last week for the latest round of FTA talks, Sefcovic signalled his disappointment, saying that he had "hoped more progress would be made".
- Asked by reporters whether this is the right time to seek closer ties with India as it participates in Russian-led military exercises, Kallas says that the EU will take the opportunity to fill any vacuum to try to ensure close relations with New Delhi. Says the EU has 'no illusions' regarding the historic close relations between Russia and India.
- Kallas says the EU is "not taking it lightly" that India participated in the Zapad exercises. Zapad exercises run every four years and are seen to directly prepare Russian forces for outright attacks on EU/NATO countries, and as such, India's participation has raised significant concerns in European capitals.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Remains Above Support
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $62.84, the Jun 24 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $58,17 the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $70.51, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $64.94, the 50-day EMA.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund Put Buyer
RXU5 127 puts, paper pays 2.0 in 3.625k
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Trend Outlook Remains Intact
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
- PRICE: 111-25+ @ 11:52 BST Aug 18
- SUP 1: 111-10+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
The underlying bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact, supported by the recent clearance of the bull trigger at 112-12+, the Jul 1 high. A resumption of gains would open 112-23, the May 1 high and the next important resistance. Above 112-23, retracement levels are layered between 113-07 and 113-23. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the low on Jul 15 and 16. First important support lies at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low.
