JPY: In the red against most G10
- CAD is the best performer in G10 versus the Yen (up 0.66%), still short of the 2022 high.
- EURJPY is up 0.56%, but well short of the 2022 peak.
- Most notable today is the USDJPY, with US Yields edging higher, led by Europe, trading at highest level since 2002.
- The 126.26 3.382 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing, has so far held, printed 126.22 high
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Bill Supply for W/C Mar 14, 2022
Germany, France, the ESM, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills this week. We look for issuance at first round operations of E14.5bln, around half of the E29.1bln raised last week.
- Germany will kick off issuance this morning with E3bln of the 6-month Sep 21, 2022 bubill on offer.
- France will this afternoon look to sell up to E5.7bln BTFs: E2.5-2.9bln of the 12-week Jun 9, 2022 BTF, E1.3-1.7bln of the new 23-week Aug 24, 2022 BTF and E0.7-1.1bln of the 49-week Feb 22, 2023 BTF.
- Tomorrow, the ESM will come to the market to sell E1.1bln of new 6-month Sep 22, 2022 bills.
- Portugal will then come to the market to sell E1.50-1.75bln of the new 6-month Sep 23, 2022 BT and the new 12-month Mar 17, 2023 BT on Wednesday morning.
- The EU will conclude issuance for the week on Wednesday with up to E2.0bln of the 3-month Jun 3, 2022 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Sep 9, 2022 EU-bill available.
EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Conditions Appear Bullish
- RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
- RES 3: 0.8498/99 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8436 Mar 10 High
- PRICE: 0.8387 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 0.8317 Low Mar 9
- SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016
EURGBP last week traded above the key resistance at the Feb 25 high of 0.8406. This completed a 100% retracement of the most recent downleg between Feb 25 - Mar 7 and strengthens a short-term bullish condition. The move higher signals scope for an extension towards the next resistance at the early February highs of 0.8478. Initial support is seen at 0.8317, the Mar 9 low.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2
- RES 3: 4119.50 High Feb 21
- RES 2: 3985.70 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 3817.30/3827.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 11
- PRICE: 3702.50 @ 06:18 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 3546.00/3380.00 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)
- SUP 3: 3318.60 2.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
- SUP 4: 3246.30 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 (cont)
EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable however a corrective cycle is still in play following last week’s recovery. The move higher is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 3817.30, the 20-day EMA. This has been probed and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery with the 50-day EMA at 3985.70. The latter EMA is a key resistance. The broader trend direction is down, the bear trigger is 3380.00.
