GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Rally Extends

• RES 4: $3700.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3674.8 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 2: $3623.1 - 2.236 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3600.2 - High Sep 5             
• PRICE: $3593.3 @ 07:27 BST Sep 8
• SUP 1: $3511.6 - Low Sep 5  
• SUP 2: $3440.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3383.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal has breached a key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, delivering a fresh all-time high. The break also confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3623.1, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3440.0, the 20-day EMA. 

Bund futures are -7 ticks at 129.02, having traded in a tight 14-tick Asia-Pac range. There may be light spillover into Bunds from JGBs (following PM Ishiba’s resignation on Sunday) and USTs (a modest unwind of Friday’s dovish payrolls reaction). There wasn’t a meaningful reaction to the stronger-than-expected German July industrial production reading (which also saw an upward revision to June’s print).

• Friday’s rally in Bund futures resulted in a break of resistance at 128.87 (Aug 28 high and short-term bull trigger). The rise undermined a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Initial upside targets:
  • 129.20 High Sep 5 
  • 129.31 High Aug 6 
  • 129.50 High Aug 5 and a key resistance   
• Key support in Bunds is the Sep 4 low at 128.25.
• There is no scheduled EGB supply for today, but the EU will hold a syndication this week so we will be on lookout for a mandate. We don't have a strong conviction regarding the issue that will be on offer.
• In France, French PM Bayrou is expected to be ousted by a no-confidence vote. Parties on the right and left of the political spectrum have expressed a lack of confidence in Bayrou's fragile administration, exacerbated by his contractionary 2026 budget plans presented before the summer recess. That leaves markets focusing on the fallout of the vote.
• A reminder that the ECB decision is due on Thursday. MNI’s preview will be released tomorrow.
• A note on Japan: Ishiba’s resignation has prompted a ~5.5bp steepening in 5s30s to a fresh all-time high (according to Bloomberg Finance L.P. data), now at ~217bps.

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.53 @ 07:10 BST Sep 8
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures have pulled back from the Sep 2 high. Recent short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.