SCANDIS: Important Supports Being Tested Across Scandi Crosses
Important supports in Scandi crosses are being tested this morning, clearance of which could extend recent outperformance against the broader G10 basket. The improved risk backdrop following the US/EU 50% tariff delay has provided a tailwind to NOK and SEK today, though the Scandis also traded resiliently in the wake of Trump’s initial tariff announcement last Friday.
- This suggests the broader theme of rotation out of the USD is continuing to benefit NOK and SEK (alongside the EUR) as has been the case through this year.
- Key near-term supports to watch:
- EURSEK (-0.3% today at 10.8010): April 4 low at 10.7941. A clear breach of this would expose 10.6652 (April 3 and multi-year low).
- USDSEK (-0.5% today at 9.4820): April 22 low at 9.4704.
- EURNOK (unch today at 11.4830): May 23 low at 11.4621. The cross has pared around 80% of the sharp 8.55% rally seen between April 2 – April 11
- USDNOK (-0.5% today at 10.0690): December 2023 low at 10.0562, clearance of which would expose the July 2023 low at 9.9249.
- The last week’s price action still leaves an uptrend in NOKSEK intact, with the uptrend drawn from the April 9 low underpinning the cross, helping narrow the gap to the key 0.9500 medium-term pivot level.
- This week’s Scandi calendar is heavy, with activity data due from both Sweden and Norway. While a June Norges Bank cut seems highly unlikely at this stage, a weak set of Swedish readings could tilt the balance in favour of a June Riksbank cut to 2.00%.
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US TSYS: Extraordinary Measures And Cash Look Sufficient To Head Off X-Date
Treasury has about $164B in "extraordinary measures" available as of April 23 to avoid hitting the debt limit, per its regular report out Friday. That's out of a maximum total of $375B (they have used $211B).
- With Treasury cash looking healthy (around $600B), that's a fair amount of dry powder to get through the summer months to wait out the debt limit impasse. Tax receipts have looked strong with tariff revenues also starting to boost cash flows, further reducing the near-term urgency to adjust bond issuance.
- This has also helped push back analyst “x-date” expectations to later in the summer/September. We expect to hear from Treasury about its own x-date assumptions next week.
US TSYS: Treasury Market Trading Stayed Orderly In April: Fed Report
Liquidity across financial markets including the Treasury market deteriorated after President Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement but market functioning was generally orderly, according to the Federal Reserve's semiannual report on financial stability, released Friday. (PDF link is here)
- Treasury market liquidity has been poor for years and yields were particularly volatile in early April, contributing to a deterioration in market liquidity, the Fed said.
- Nevertheless "trading remained orderly, and markets continued to function without serious disruption," according to the report, which looked at information available as of April 11.
FED: Ex-Gov Warsh: Fed Has Failed To Satisfy Price Stability Remit
From our Washington Policy Team - Some fairly sharp words today from ex-Fed Governor Warsh on the central bank (who for what it's worth is seen by betting markets as by far the frontrunner for the next Fed Chair):
- The best way for the Federal Reserve to safeguard its independence is for policymakers to avoid expanding the institution's role over time, including wading into policy areas that are outside its core mission, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, a leading contender to replace Jerome Powell as chair next year, said Friday.
- "I strongly believe in the operational independence of monetary policy as a wise political economy decision. And I believe that Fed independence is chiefly up to the Fed," Warsh said in a speech at a Group of Thirty event on the sidelines of the IMF meetings. "Institutional drift has coincided with the Fed’s failure to satisfy an essential part of its statutory remit, price stability. It has also contributed to an explosion of federal spending." His speech made no mention of Trump's tariffs or the appropriate monetary policy to deal with them.
- He said the ideas of data dependence and forward guidance widely adopted by Fed officials are not especially useful and might even be counterproductive.
"We should care little about two numbers to the right of the decimal point in the latest government release. Breathlessly awaiting trailing data from stale national accounts -- subject to significant, subsequent revision -- is evidence of false precision and analytic complacency," he said.
"Near-term forecasting is another distracting Fed preoccupation. Economists are not immune to the frailties of human nature. Once policymakers reveal their economic forecast, they can become prisoners of their own words. Fed leaders would be well-served to skip opportunities to share their latest musings."
