PHILIPPINES: Impeachment Articles Returned To House Causing Further Delay
Vice President Sara Duterte's office confirmed receipt of the writ of summons issued by the Senate i...
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STIR: Just Over 50bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Dec, Macro Dominates Lombardelli
Little reaction in GBP STIRs to the above comments from BoE’s Lombardell, who didn’t provide much in the way of fresh, meaningful information for markets, positioning herself in the same camp as Governor Bailey i.e. May’s decision was “finely balanced”.
- As such, broader swings in risk appetite continue to dominate.
- 3bp of cuts priced into BoE-dated OIS through June, 21bp through August, 30bp through September, 45bp through November and 51bp through year-end.
- ~50bp of cuts were priced through year-end before Lombardelli started speaking.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.180 | -3.0 |
Aug-25 | 3.997 | -21.3 |
Sep-25 | 3.910 | -30.0 |
Nov-25 | 3.757 | -45.3 |
Dec-25 | 3.700 | -51.0 |
Feb-26 | 3.623 | -58.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.607 | -60.3 |
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Approaching Key Short-Term Resistance at 50-Day EMA
A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The corrective cycle remains in play for now and price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance to watch is $63.62, the 50-day EMA, a clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The latest pullback in Gold appears corrective. The primary trend condition is bullish and a resumption of the uptrend would signal scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A clear break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- WTI Crude up $1.71 or +2.8% at $62.75
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.4% at $3.781
- Gold spot down $94.25 or -2.83% at $3232.01
- Copper down $1.3 or -0.28% at $464.1
- Silver down $0.47 or -1.44% at $32.295
- Platinum down $14.7 or -1.47% at $987.31
EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Pierces Key Resistance and Bull Trigger at $5837.25
Strong gains in Eurostoxx 50 futures contract today reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. The continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial support to watch lies at 5127.08, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal. The bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and today’s strong start to this week’s session reinforces bullish conditions. The contract has pierced an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens the current bullish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 5896.25, a Fibonacci retracement.Initial firm support to watch lies at 5628.71, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 140.93 pts or +0.38% at 37644.26 and the TOPIX ended 8.59 pts higher or +0.31% at 2742.08.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 27.245 pts or +0.82% at 3369.244 and the HANG SENG ended 681.72 pts higher or +2.98% at 23549.46.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 252.32 pts or +1.07% at 23752.46, FTSE 100 higher by 38.34 pts or +0.45% at 8593.27, CAC 40 up 84.82 pts or +1.1% at 7828.57 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 86.09 pts or +1.62% at 5395.83.
- Dow Jones mini up 859 pts or +2.08% at 42172, S&P 500 mini up 153 pts or +2.69% at 5830.25, NASDAQ mini up 729 pts or +3.62% at 20864.75.
