SECURITY: "Imminent" Threat Of Iranian Strike On US Base In Qatar - Fox News
Fox News reporting on X: "BREAKING: 'Imminent' threat of Iranian strike on US base in Qatar, sources tell Fox News." Comes as speculation intensifies that an Iranian counterstrike on US military assets in the region could take place in the coming minutes or hours.
- Axios reports: "The Trump administration is preparing for an Iranian attack against American bases in the Gulf in retaliation for its strike on Iran's nuclear facilities this weekend, U.S. officials say."
- As we have noted previously, a strike on US assets could serve as an offramp to tensions, if it is calibrated below the threshold for escalation. This playbook was used during the tensions that followed the US airstrike that killed IRGC general
- Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
- Axios writes: "The scope of the Iranian retaliation — particularly the number of casualties — will determine how President Trump responds, and whether the U.S. plunges deeper into Israel's war with Iran."
- Matthew Reed at ForeignReports notes on X: ""Leaks" and alerts over the last few hours hint Iran will strike Al Udeid [Qatar], where about 10,000 US troops are/were based before US hit Iran. Attacks on other bases likely. Safe bet US was warned in advance again, making it easier to protect troops. Still a VERY dangerous moment."
- Unsubstantiated reports on social media suggest that the United Arab Emirates is shortly due to follow Qatar's lead in closing its airspace. According to data from Dubai airport, flights appear to be departing as scheduled.
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
