EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: IMCD: 1H 25
Misses estimates slightly but still grew which is a positive.
• Revenue 1H €2,747m +6% CER; 2Q revenue +3% CER helped by acquisitions.
• Op EBITDA 1H €275m +4% CER; however 2Q fell -7% with organic developments -6%.
• Fall in FCF to €173m vs €221m in 1H24.
• 6 acquisition so far this year.
• ND/EBITDA now 2.6x vs 2.2x YE24.
• Declines to give a specific Outlook other than to say it is confident in its business.
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CROSS ASSET: Gold Edges towards $3,300.00, the Dollar extends losses
- Gold is firming back towards $3300.00 handle, a Dollar led move with the latter printing fresh broader lows versus the EUR, SGD, CZK, INR, MXN, SEK, THB, and ZAR.
- The resistance in EURUSD comes at 1.1753 High Jun 27.
STIR: Over 50bp Of BoE Cuts Through Dec Still Priced
GBP STIRs consolidate the modest dovish move seen post-SONIA settlement on Friday.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 20bp of easing for August, 26bp through September, 43bp through November and 53bp through year-end.
- SONIA futures flat to +2.5.
- Those that hold dovish views have not been able to force a sustainable move through 55bp of cuts through year-end in recent sessions.
- Our baseline view continues to look for 2 cuts (August and November) through year-end at this stage, although risks seem skewed to the dovish side given the recent evolution of labour market data.
- In line final Q1 GDP, a wider-than-expected current account deficit and lower tier Lloyds Business Barometer data did little for markets at the open.
- Little of note on the UK calendar for the remainder of the day.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.015 | -20.2 |
Sep-25 | 3.955 | -26.2 |
Nov-25 | 3.786 | -43.1 |
Dec-25 | 3.688 | -52.9 |
Feb-26 | 3.552 | -66.5 |
Mar-26 | 3.509 | -70.8 |
USD: In the red against all the Majors into the European session
- The Dollar is in the red against all the majors at the start of the Week, Risk On Tone and lower Yields have been weighted on hope of trade deals and lower Rates going forward.
- The Yen has benefitted from the lower yields, and while it is the best early performer, up half a percent, it is yet to break last Week's low of 143.75.
- Initial support is seen towards 143.65.
- The Kiwi is the second best performer and Market participants will be keeping a close eye on the 0.6088 level, the June high and highest traded level since 16th October last Year.
- AUDUSD is also challenging that June high, this comes at 0.6564, the best level seen since 12th November.
(Chart source: Bloomberg Finance LP/MNI).
