EUROPEAN INFLATION: IFO Price Expectations Broadly Unchanged in February
IFO price expectations in Germany remained broadly unchanged in February, at 19.4 points, from January's 19.5.
- "For service providers, the indicator fell to 24.0 points, down from 32.2 points in January... price pressure is easing somewhat for consumer-related service providers (26.9 points, down from 27.5 points)", IFO comments.
- "In the retail sector, price expectations rose to 33.2 points, up from 30.5 points in January. This was mainly due to trade in food and beverage (46.6 points, up from 39.6 points), while price plans in the rest of the retail sector remained unchanged at 32.9 points."
- German February HICP is scheduled to be released tomorrow 13:00 GMT, with focus on the state-level data earlier that morning. For more detailed analysis, find the full MNI EZ inflation preview here.
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GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: Tender on Thursday:
The DMO has announced that it will sell the 0.125% Jan-26 gilt (ISIN: GB00BL68HJ26) for GBP1.5bln via tender on Thursday. This is the gilt that we expected and in the middle of the GBP1.0-2.0bln size estimate that we pencilled in.
GOLD TECHS: Bull Phase Remains Intact
- RES 4: 2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high
- RES 1: $2786.0 - HIgh Jan 24
- PRICE: $2742.6 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: $2702.2/2671.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
Despite yesterday’s pullback, Gold is trading closer to its recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the breach of resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2671.6, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.
BUNDS: US Tariffs Talks drive cross assets
- A tighter 10 ticks overnight range session for the German Bund, but the contract did gap lower on report that Trump's Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is backing to Levy a 2.5% Universal tariffs on US imports that would increase on a Month to Month Basis.
- Moves have been far more pronounced in the Dollar.
- Nonetheless, initial support will be at 131.33 (Monday's gap) in Bund, followed by the 131.00 figure.
- The small opening gap was up to 131.61, but this has now been closed on the Cash open.
- Better resistance is still seen at 132.22 and 132.57 initially.
- There's very little on the Data front for today, these start Tomorrow, but really picks up on Thursday/Friday.
- For Today, US prelim durable goods is the notable release.
- SUPPLY: Netherlands €2.5bn 2030 (would equate to 22.5k Bobl) could weigh, UK sells a 2035 linker (won't impact Gilt), Italy €3bn 2027 (equates to 26.5k short 2yr BTP) could weigh, the 2029, 2036 Linkers won't impact BTP.
- US sells $30bn of 2yr FRN (won't Impact Treasuries), sells $44bn of 7yr notes (the main focus for the US).
- SYNDICATION: Austria 10yr and 2049 Green.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Villeroy, Cippolone.
