OIL: IEA Sees Global Oil Demand at 103.9m b/d in 2025
Select IEA headlines:
“*IEA SEES GLOBAL OIL DEMAND AT 103.9M B/D IN '25, 102.9M IN '24
*IEA SEES GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY AT 104.5M B/D IN '25 VS 103M IN '24
*IEA Trims 2025 Global Oil-Demand Growth Estimate to 1.03 Mln B/D From 1.1 Mln B/D
*IEA: Global Oil Demand Rose by 1.2 Mln B/D in 1Q 2025
*IEA Keeps 2025 Total Oil-Supply Forecast at 104.5 Mln B/D
*IEA: Another 400,000 B/D Could Be Added if OPEC+ Proceeds With Output Hike Beyond April, Members Continue to Overproduce
*IEA: OPEC+ Crude Supply Rose by 210,000 B/D in February
*NON-OPEC+ OUTPUT TO RISE BY 1.5M B/D IN 2025, IEA SAYS” - bbg
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STIR: Modest Hawkish Reaction To Mann, 62bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End
Modest hawkish reaction to comments from BoE hawk-turned-dove Mann, as she refers to the Bank’s MaPS survey when it comes to neutral rates (3.00-3.50% currently estimated), as opposed to the BOE's updated model-based estimates for equilibrium (2.25-3.75% estimate).
- Mann’s activist approach is underscored here, as she notes that she expects “Bank Rate will average well above the nominal equilibrium.”
- She also reaffirms the need for continued restrictiveness despite her preference for a 50bp cut last week.
- ~62bp of cuts now priced through year-end vs. 64bp earlier today.
- SONIA futures flat to -3.0, a little below pre-gilt open levels.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Cut-Adjusted SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.400 | -5.4 |
May-25 | 4.199 | -25.5 |
Jun-25 | 4.120 | -33.4 |
Aug-25 | 3.972 | -48.3 |
Sep-25 | 3.930 | -52.4 |
Nov-25 | 3.856 | -59.9 |
Dec-25 | 3.834 | -62.0 |
GILT SYNDICATION: New 10-year: 4.50% Mar-35 gilt: Update
- Guidance unch: 4.25% Jul-34 gilt + 5.5/6.0bps
- Size: GBP benchmark (MNI expects GBP8.5-10.0bln)
- Orderbooks in excess of GBP110bln (inc JLM interest of GBP9.6bln)
- Maturity: 7 March 2035
- ISIN: GB00BT7J0027
- Settlement: 12 February, 2025 (T+1)
- Bookrunners: Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi (B&D/DM), Goldman Sachs International Bank, HSBC and NatWest.
- Timing: Books open, pricing later today
From market source
BOE: Mann seems to pays more attention to MaPS than models for neutral rate
- Key point for us (in addition to what we learnt in the FT interview) is that she doesn't point to the BOE's updated model-based estimates for equilibrium (2.25-3.75%) but she points to the MaPS survey that has the neutral rate at 3.00-3.50%.
- This suggests that is more in line with her thinking.
- And if she wants to stay restrictive we are 100bp above the upper end of the neutral estimate.
