EU TRANSPORTATION: IDS: FINAL (x2)

Sep-24 12:37

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(IDSLN; NR/BBB-/NR) The existing sterling 5y also comes with a step and trades swapped into Euros a...

Historical bullets

US TSY OPTIONS: Decent Oct'25 10Y Call Buy

Aug-25 12:33
  • +25,000 TYV5 113.5 calls, 15 vs. 112-00.5/0.19% (pre-open)

FED: Chair Candidate Hassett: Powell's "Pivot" Was "Data-Driven" And "Sound"

Aug-25 12:33

NEC director Kevin Hassett (known to be a candidate for the next Fed Chair) tells CNBC that Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech showed a Fed that is "late" to cut but that Powell's presentation was "sound" and "data driven". He also suggests that it could be another few months before President Trump makes his decision on the next Chair.

  • "I think that the pivot was accurate. It was data driven. If you look at the trailing six month inflation rate, it's 1.9%; core is about half percent higher than that, and so inflation has gone way down. Meanwhile, the economy is looking strong, but not too strong, and so I think it's appropriate for the Fed to consider ... what federal funds futures markets are saying they're going to do, that's cutting rates, and so I think that the Fed's a little bit late to the game, but I thought that the presentation that Jay Powell made up at Jackson Hole was sound."
  • Asked if it was "impossible" for Powell to get back in the President's "good books", Hassett says: "Yes I do."
  • On the topic of the Fed chair search, Hassett says "there are a number of really excellent candidates being interviewed by [Tsy Sec Bessent] and the president. And I would expect that this would run out for another few months before the President decides."

US TSYS: Extending Lows With German Bund

Aug-25 12:17
  • Tsys extended lows in the last few minutes (TYU5 -6.5 at 111-30), Bunds following similar decline and modest bounce (RXU5 128.85 low, 128.88 last -.56).
  • Heavy Treasury volumes tied to the Sep/Dec roll with Dec taking lead this Friday. Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30. Meanwhile, Sep'25 Tsy options will expire LAST Friday, August 22.
  • Initial technical support at 111-13 (50-day EMA), a clear break of this average would expose support at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low.