MIDEAST: IDF Spox Says IRGC HQ Hit; Russia's Putin Meets w/Iran For Min
Amid continuing Iranian missile strikes on Israel, and vice versa, Reuters reports comments from Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) spox Effie Defrin. Says that the Iranian attacks "are not behind us" and that the "Iranian threat has not been eliminated". Claims that the Israeli air force has hit every Iranian base from where missiles have been launched at Israel. Adds that Israel's military chief has been in regular contact with his US counterpart. Amichai Stein at Israel's i24 posts on X: "In the current attack, hundreds of [IRGC] members were eliminated inside the targeted buildings..."
- Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz's office confirms the strike on the IRGC HQ, as well as Evin Prison. His office says "for every attack on Israel's home front, the Iranian dictator will be severely punished and strikes will continue with full force." Adds "We will continue to act to defend the home front and defeat the enemy until all war objectives are achieved."
- Separately, a high-profile meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi it taking place in Moscow. State TV reports Putin telling Araghchi that "Our position on current events has been relayed by the foreign ministry: that the aggression against Iran is groundless." Says Russia will "try to help the Iranian people," adding their meeting "will give us the best opportunity to find ways out of the current situation."
- Aragchi tells Putin that the US and Israeli actions are "illegitimate" and that Russia "is on the right side of history."
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
