MNI EXCLUSIVE: ICMA On EU Bond Market

• In the FI space, Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The contract traded sharply lower Friday resulting in a breach of 128.84, the Jul 25 low and bear trigger. Note that the 129.00 handle marks the base of a broad range and a clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish threat. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.93, is required to signal a reversal. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 129.64.
• Gilt futures traded sharply lower last Friday and yesterday’s sell-off confirmed a bearish start to the week, strengthening current conditions. The contract has breached key short-term support and a bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 90.11, the May 22 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is seen at 91.99, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to highlight a potential reversal. First resistance is 91.32, Monday’s high.

Speaking at a meeting of Nordic 5 (N5) foreign ministers in Helsinki, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen claims that the 'coalition of the willing' has begun preparations on the prospect of deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, but that no decisions have been made yet. Valtonen spoke alongside the foreign ministers of Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Sweden, as well as invited Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand. 

• Valtonen adds that "We have not seen anything from Russia yet [to indicate] that they would be ready to be involved in a true peace process for Ukraine." Valtonen: "We welcome the possibility of finding a peace solution in Ukraine, but experience has shown it doesn't happen quickly."
• Canada's Anand: "There is an opportunity to end Russia's illegal war in Ukraine [but] we have been discussing stable security guarantees since at least 2023. Security guarantees are one piece [of the puzzle], but let's not forget the [importance of] aid given to Ukraine."
• Swedish and Danish FMs both made positive noises on participation in security guarantees without offering further details. 

Some of the N5 nations have proved the most significant financial and military backers of Ukraine. Indeed, Denmark, Sweden and Norway jointly contributed USD500mln to the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) scheme. This sees Ukraine inform European NATO countries of what weaponry it needs. Those countries then check with the US what stockpiles they have. The European countries then pay the US for the weapons in USD500mln packages, and then ship them to Ukraine.

• On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
• In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $64.00, the 50-day EMA.