EMISSIONS: ICIS Sees Decision on 370MN Free Allocation Buffer as Key Policy Risk
Dec-10 14:59
ICIS sees the EU Commission’s decision on the 370mn leftover allowances in the free allocation buffer, representing about 3% of the 2021–2030 cap, as a key policy risk in 2026, the analyst said in a webinar.
- EUAs Forecast - ICIS maintains its EUAs Q1 2026 forecast at €100/tCO2e that published in late November, driven by forecasted deficits, tightening supply and exhausted fuel-switching options.
- EU ETS Review – It expects no policy changes to be implemented until 2028 from the EU ETS review scheduled to launch in Q3 2026.
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UK FISCAL: Reeves: Most explicit on breaking manifesto and 2 child benefit cap
Nov-10 14:59
- Overall - that is the most explicit Reeves has been about breaking the manifesto pledges not to increase income tax, NIC or VAT (but one of those being broken is already widely expected now).
- Also the clearest indication regarding the end of the 2 child benefit cap: "I don't think a child said the chancellor should be penalised for being in a bigger family through no fault of their own."
BONDS: Tsys Extend Recovery
Nov-10 14:56
The early NY squeeze higher in Tsys extends, with U.S. paper unwinding much of the underperformance that came after the weekend developments towards reopening the government. Tsys now only ~0.5bp wider vs. Bunds on the day.
- TY futures get within 0-00+ of closing the opening gap lower before the rally stalls.
- Bund & gilt futures still trade below Friday highs.
- A fresh move higher in e-minis allows peripherals & OATs to maintain outperformance within EGBs.
- A block sale in U.S. FV futures and soft demand at the latest BoE APF operation sees bonds off highs.
UK FISCAL: Reeves hints heavily at end to 2 child benefit cap
Nov-10 14:53
Reeves not fully committing but seems to be heavily hinting at an end to the 2 child benefit cap.
- This would cost around GBP3.5bln.
- She says "don't think we can lose sight as well of the costs to our economy in allowing child poverty to go unchecked" as well as making the social argument.
