EMISSIONS: ICAP Urges UK To Align With EU ETS Cap, Reduction Targets
May-22 10:44
The International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) welcomed the EU-UK ETS link agreement and urged t...
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 10Y Ultra Bond
Apr-22 10:43
- 2,463 UXYM5 112-18, may be a sale with a fair amount of two-way trade at the post time of 0625:10ET, DV01 $218,000. The contract trades 112-17.5 (-8.5) last
STIR: Senior FOMC Officials In The Spotlight
Apr-22 10:37
- Fed Funds implied rates sit within yesterday’s Easter Monday holiday-thinned ranges as markets assess the latest of US President Trump’s attempts at pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 3.5bp May, 18.5bp Jun, 41bp Jul, 60bp Sep and 91bp Dec.
- Yesterday’s timely MNI policy team exclusive with Lev Menand looked at options away from just Fed Chair Powell’s role (see Fed Independence Facing Imminent Risk – Menand, published 1613ET).
- That sees today’s various scheduled Fedspeakers in particular focus in an another quiet data docket, with messages either of continued caution against cutting rates too soon or a more dovish tone both of note. We imagine permanent voters Jefferson and Kugler will be watched most closely, although Kugler is late on.
- 0900ET – Vice Chair Jefferson (permanent voter) on economic mobility and the dual mandate (text only). He said Apr 3 that there was no need to hurry to adjust rates and that is was crucial to assess the full effect of Trump administration changes. That said, he noted growth was solid but saw signs of slowing and that persistent uncertainty may constrain the economy.
- 0930ET – Harker (retiring June) on economic mobility and regional economies (fireside chat)
- 1340ET – Kashkari (’26 voter) at Chamber of Commerce Global Summit (Q&A only)
- 1430ET – Barkin (non-voter) fireside chat at innovation summit (Q&A only)
- 1800ET – Gov. Kugler (permanent voter) on monetary policy transmission (text + Q&A). She said Apr 7 that inflation was now the more pressing issue with regards to tariffs and that the Fed needs to make sure it doesn’t rise. She warned the tariff impact should be consequential.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gold Remains In Play
Apr-22 10:36
- On the commodity front, the trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, the 1.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing. Initial firm support lies at 3163.5, the 20-day EMA. First support is $3331.5, the Apr 21 low.
- In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level. The 50-day EMA is at $66.22.
