EU UTILITIES: Iberdrola: CMD
Sep-24 08:25
(IBESM; Baa1/BBB+/BBB+)
No real surprises for us here, with the recent equity raise underpinning increasing investments.
- Iberdrola has announced an updated €58bn investment plan for 2025-28.
- That averages at €14.5bn p.a., up from €13.5bn previously.
- 64% of that is earmarked for networks, with the rest for renewables.
- The regional share for UK/US is 65%, up from 40% in the prior period.
- Targeting €18bn EBITDA for FY28, 75% regulated/contracted share, up from 72%.
- €52bn of cash flow expected, with €13bn asset rotation. After dividends, that implies a roughly €12bn funding gap at the middle of its dividend payout range. It recently raised €5bn equity.
- Committed to current ratings.
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- There is still very limited movement on this UK bank holiday Monday with the biggest mover in the G10 space AUDJPY (versus the USD the all G10 currencies are within 0.3% of Friday's close).
- The main scheduled event of the day will be the release of the German IFO survey at 9:00BST while we will hear from the Fed's Logan but not until 20:15BST (and it is unclear whether she will speak on monetary policy).
- It will be the second half of the week that we will see the main economic releases of the week with the second estimate of US Q2 GDP due Thursday. Friday will be a very busy data day with Tokyo CPI and flash HICP releases from France, Spain, Italy and Germany as well as July PCE from the US and Q2 GDP from Canada.
- Outside of G10 FX, USDCNH has seen more notable moves with the USDCNY fixing at the lowest level since early November and our Asia team noting that CNH was also helped by China property related equities have been buoyed on headlines of easing Shanghai home buying curbs. See our technical analysts' views above as the cross approaches key support.
