POWER: Iberdrola Advances 274MW Portuguese Onshore Wind Build

Quiet day ahead due to Veterans Day holiday - focus on weekly ADP  employment data. Cash FI markets closed but futures are open on Globex; NYSE and Nasdaq are open. The Senate passed a stopgap bill last night to fund the US Govt through January 30. Vote goes to the House tomorrow - as early as 1600ET, according to a notice from GOP Whip Tom Emmer.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 11/11 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism: reported 98.2, down from 98.8 prior
• 11/11 0815 Weekly ADP "Employment Pulse"
• 11/11 2225 Fed Gov Barr on AI & innovation
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• Fed Funds implied rates are little changed on the day, with today’s data focus likely on the first known-ahead-of-time publication of weekly ADP series at 0815ET.
• Cumulative cuts from 3.87% effective: 15.5bp Dec, 25bp Jan, 35bp Mar, 41.5bp Apr and 55bp Jun.
• SOFR futures are also little changed, between 1 tick firmer (Z5 and H6) and 1 tick lower (Z7).
• It leaves the terminal implied yield at 3.115% (H7) off last week’s multi-month high of 3.16% before being helped lower by soft alternative labor data.
• Today’s only scheduled Fedspeak comes overnight with Fed Governor Barr (voter) in Singapore, speaking on AI and innovation at 2225ET (text + Q&A). He said on Nov 6 that the Fed has made progress on inflation but there is still "work to do". Wealthier households are thriving in a two-speed economy whilst the Fed must pay attention to ensuring the job market is solid. 

• In FX, EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective and has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch remains the 20-day EMA, at 1.1584. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1624. A reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
• A bear trend in GBPUSD remains intact and recent gains still appear corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3231. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.3334. For bears, a resumption of the downtrend would open 1.2971, a 1.382 projection of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing. The bear trigger is 1.3010, Nov 4 and 5 low.
• The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and today’s marginal fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A clear break of the bull trigger at 154.48, the Nov 4 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 152.70, the 20-day EMA.