IRAN: IAEA Issues Fresh Iran Nuclear Warning, Risk Increases For New Conflict
Nov-12 15:50
The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has warned in a neconfidential report that the agency has been unable to verify the status of Iran’s near weapons-grade uranium stockpile, since joint US-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites within the country.
- The agency warned it “lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the previously declared inventories of nuclear material in Iran” at facilities affected by the war and stressed that this issue must be “urgently addressed,” per AP.
- Laurence Norman at the WSJ quotes the report on X, "The quantity of [highly enriched uranium] produced & accumulated by Iran, the only NPT non-nuclear-weapon State to have done so, which remains in Iran without the Agency being able to verify it...is a matter of serious concern and a matter..."
- The absence of independent verification of Iran’s nuclear programme raises the risk of another outbreak of war between Iran and Israel. This is compounded by reports that Tehran may be reconstituting its nuclear programme at a new site south of the damaged Natanz facility.
- CSIS noted on October 27, “If Tehran continues to deny international access to its nuclear program while actively constructing secretive underground facilities such as Pickaxe Mountain, Iran could build back key aspects of its nuclear program in the dark.”
- NYT reported on Nov 9, “a dangerous stalemate" has caused many in the Gulf to believe that "another Israeli attack on Iran [is] almost inevitable, given Israeli officials’ long-held view that Iran’s nuclear program is an existential threat.”
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JAPAN: Oppo. Parties To Meet 14 Oct; Komeito May Back Non-LDP PM Candidate
Oct-13 15:42
The secretaries-general of the three main opposition parties: the liberal Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the libertarian federalist Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), and the conservative populist Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), are due to hold talks on 14 Oct regarding the prospect of an alliance to elect a new PM. There remains the prospect that the three parties could look to unite and present a joint prime ministerial candidate in the National Diet session (likely 20/21 Oct), where a successor to the outgoing PM, Shigeru Ishiba, will be elected.
- The Komeito party announced in early October that it would not back new Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president Sanae Takaichi’s bid to become PM, raising the prospect of the opposition ousting the LDP for the first time since 2012.
- After the SG-level meeting on 14 Oct, the leaders of the CDP, Ishin and DPFP could meet on 15 Oct.
- In a potential boost to the opposition's chances, Tetsuo Saito, leader of the centrist Komeito party, has reversed his previous stance and said that voting for an opposition candidate for PM was "one of the possibilities" in a run-off election in the Diet.
- Despite dissolving the governing coalition with the LDP last week, Saito previously said that "voting for the leader of the opposition party would be out of the question". This change in view could bolster the prospects of DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki (seen as the frontrunner of potential opposition PM) winning a run-off in the Diet.
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Oct-13 15:34
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US STOCKS: Equities Roundup: Chip Makers, Materials Lead Early Monday Rebound
Oct-13 15:29
- Stocks have recovered approximately half of Friday's sell-off in the first half of Monday trade, inside narrow ranges with prices off highs amid moderate profit taking ahead midday. Overall trade was relatively subdued due to the Columbus Day holiday.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 579.6 points (1.27%) at 46,059.93, S&P E-Minis up 96.25 points (1.46%) at 6,692, Nasdaq up 438.1 points (2%) at 22,645.79.
- Information Technology and Materials sector shares led the rally, semiconductor makers outperforming: Broadcom Inc climbed +9.71% after reports of an accelerated AI chip deal with OpenAI , Monolithic Power Systems +7.55%, ON Semiconductor +6.17%, Microchip Technology +5.30% and HP Inc +4.50%.
- Materials sector gainers included Albemarle Corp, up +8.09% apparently on a short squeeze tied to lithium mining, Freeport-McMoRan +4.92%, Dow Inc +4.21%, Newmont Corp +4.12%.
- Conversely, Consumer Staples and Health Care sector shares led declines in the first half: Conagra Brands -2.93%, Monster Beverage -2.69%, J M Smucker Co -2.51% and The Hershey Co -2.30%. Pharmaceuticals weighed on the Health Care sector: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals -2.39%, Humana -2.29%, Edwards Lifesciences -0.65% and Cardinal Health -0.52%.
