IRAN: IAEA Issues Fresh Iran Nuclear Warning, Risk Increases For New Conflict

The secretaries-general of the three main opposition parties: the liberal Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the libertarian federalist Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), and the conservative populist Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), are due to hold talks on 14 Oct regarding the prospect of an alliance to elect a new PM. There remains the prospect that the three parties could look to unite and present a joint prime ministerial candidate in the National Diet session (likely 20/21 Oct), where a successor to the outgoing PM, Shigeru Ishiba, will be elected. 

• The Komeito party announced in early October that it would not back new Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president Sanae Takaichi’s bid to become PM, raising the prospect of the opposition ousting the LDP for the first time since 2012. 
• After the SG-level meeting on 14 Oct, the leaders of the CDP, Ishin and DPFP could meet on 15 Oct.
• In a potential boost to the opposition's chances, Tetsuo Saito, leader of the centrist Komeito party, has reversed his previous stance and said that voting for an opposition candidate for PM was "one of the possibilities" in a run-off election in the Diet.
• Despite dissolving the governing coalition with the LDP last week, Saito previously said that "voting for the leader of the opposition party would be out of the question". This change in view could bolster the prospects of DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki (seen as the frontrunner of potential opposition PM) winning a run-off in the Diet. 

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• Stocks have recovered approximately half of Friday's sell-off in the first half of Monday trade, inside narrow ranges with prices off highs amid moderate profit taking ahead midday. Overall trade was relatively subdued due to the Columbus Day holiday.
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 579.6 points (1.27%) at 46,059.93, S&P E-Minis up 96.25 points (1.46%) at 6,692, Nasdaq up 438.1 points (2%) at 22,645.79.
• Information Technology and Materials sector shares led the rally, semiconductor makers outperforming: Broadcom Inc climbed +9.71% after reports of an accelerated AI chip deal with OpenAI , Monolithic Power Systems +7.55%, ON Semiconductor +6.17%, Microchip Technology +5.30% and HP Inc +4.50%.
• Materials sector gainers included Albemarle Corp, up +8.09% apparently on a short squeeze tied to lithium mining, Freeport-McMoRan +4.92%, Dow Inc +4.21%, Newmont Corp +4.12%.
• Conversely, Consumer Staples and Health Care sector shares led declines in the first half: Conagra Brands -2.93%, Monster Beverage -2.69%, J M Smucker Co -2.51% and The Hershey Co -2.30%. Pharmaceuticals weighed on the Health Care sector: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals -2.39%, Humana -2.29%, Edwards Lifesciences -0.65% and Cardinal Health -0.52%.