UK: i Paper-Gov't Considers Pulling Welfare Reform Bill Amid Growing Rebellion
The i Newspaper reports that PM Sir Keir Starmer could pull a controversial piece of legislation intended to save the gov't GBP5bln/year by 2030 by cutting a disability benefit, the Personal Independence Payment (PIP). This comes in the face of a growing rebellion among MPs from Starmer's centre-left Labour party, with over 120 putting their names to a 'reasoned amendment' that, if passed, would scupper the gov'ts reform plans.
- The gov't could look to continue with the reforms (as Starmer said he would earlier this morning). This would either need the number of rebels to decrease substantially, or rely on support from the main opposition centre-right Conservatives. The former seems unlikely given the groundswell of opinion among Labour backbenchers. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch announced on 24 June that her MPs would back the legislation (enough to overcome the Labour rebels), before posting criticism of the potential withdrawal on X.
- The option of pulling the legislation (to be announced by the Leader of the Commons, Lucy Powell, on the morning of 26 June), would see it pushed back until the new parliamentary session in the autumn, when it would be reintroduced with rebels' views taken into account.
- Labour continues to trail the populist Reform UK in opinion polling, with Nigel Farage's party outflanking Starmer on the right on issues such as immigration, but on the left on welfare, leaving the gov't in a difficult position in terms of policy making.
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SECURITY: Iran Says it Can Survive Without US Nuclear Deal
Iran would be able to survive if negotiations with the US over its nuclear programme failed to secure a deal, President Masoud Pezeshkian said May 26.
- "It's not like we will die of hunger if they refuse to negotiate with us or impose sanctions," Pezeshkian was quoted as saying by state cited by Reuters. "We will find a way to survive."
- Despite the tone from Iran’s President, Trump recently said that he was “optimistic” following the last round of talks with Iran.
- “I don’t know if I’ll be telling you anything good or bad over the next two days, but I have a feeling I might be telling you something good,” Trump told reporters.
- This echoed more upbeat tones from the Iranian lean negotiator Abbas Araghchi, who said they could lead to an agreement in the next couple of meetings.
- Iranian and US delegates concluded the fifth round of talks in Rome with some signs of limited talks emerging.
- The sticking point for the talks remain the level of Iranian uranium enrichment.
- Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei ruled out both the possibility of an interim provisional deal with the US, and a three-year freeze on Uranium enrichment.
- The parties are waiting for further details with mediator Oman for timing of the sixth round of talks.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In WTI Still Present
- On the commodity front, Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
- In the oil space, WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.71, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The May 21 price pattern is a shooting star - a reversal signal.
STIR: Mix Of Positioning Swings Seen Across The SOFR Strip On Friday
OI data points to a mix of short setting and long cover in the SOFR whites on Friday, before a combination of net long setting and short cover came to the fore further out the strip.
| 23-May-25 | 22-May-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,070,469 | 1,075,199 | -4,730 | Whites | +15,066 |
SFRM5 | 1,364,253 | 1,324,474 | +39,779 | Reds | -34,748 |
SFRU5 | 1,097,821 | 1,096,261 | +1,560 | Greens | -11,668 |
SFRZ5 | 1,049,549 | 1,071,092 | -21,543 | Blues | +25,101 |
SFRH6 | 764,236 | 763,461 | +775 |
|
|
SFRM6 | 730,060 | 721,150 | +8,910 |
|
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SFRU6 | 736,714 | 758,393 | -21,679 |
|
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SFRZ6 | 847,770 | 870,524 | -22,754 |
|
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SFRH7 | 683,982 | 701,982 | -18,000 |
|
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SFRM7 | 584,225 | 592,082 | -7,857 |
|
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SFRU7 | 412,221 | 394,769 | +17,452 |
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SFRZ7 | 409,664 | 412,927 | -3,263 |
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SFRH8 | 288,725 | 271,642 | +17,083 |
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SFRM8 | 201,997 | 199,241 | +2,756 |
|
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SFRU8 | 152,216 | 153,039 | -823 |
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SFRZ8 | 175,023 | 168,938 | +6,085 |
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