HYBRIDS: Hybrids: Movers - Proximus wider than Telefo but watch the stock
- Proximus equity taking a turn lower: -6% from yesterday's highs
- In the past year, PROXBB is -29% vs +16% for Telefonica; +2.6% for Orange
- Belgium still has among the highest ARPU in Europe and is thus very vulnerable to competition from Digi entry and from Orange's Hey which are offering €5/mth deals
- PROXBB 4.75 Call31 have been quite stable recently but investors should be aware of a resumption in equity weakness
- PROXBB 4.75 Call31 100.30 4.69% YTC z+246 SubSbnr +160
- TELEFO 6.135 Call30 107.90 4.34% YTC z+214 SubSnr +155
- TELEFO is worse rated but vastly bigger €22.4bn vs €1.7bn
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COMMODITIES: Gains for WTI Futures Expose Key Short-Term Resistance at $76.41
WTI futures traded higher last week as the contract extended recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. A firm resistance at $71.97, the Nov 7 high, has been breached, strengthening a bullish theme. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose support at the 20-day EMA, at $70.49. This average is seen as a key short-term support. A bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery, The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a resumption of gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
- WTI Crude down $0.14 or -0.19% at $73.83
- Natural Gas up $0.29 or +8.5% at $3.637
- Gold spot down $8.18 or -0.31% at $2631.91
- Copper up $1.45 or +0.36% at $409.1
- Silver up $0.13 or +0.44% at $29.7411
- Platinum up $9.26 or +0.99% at $948.25
EQUITIES: Bear Threat in E-Mini S&P Remains Present, Attention on $5866.00
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. However, the recent move down continues to highlight a corrective phase and despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Key short-term support has been defined at 4829.00, the Dec 20 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open 4800.87, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 4942.00, the Jan 2 high. A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. Attention is on 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of this level is required to open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 587.49 pts or -1.47% at 39307.05 and the TOPIX ended 28.54 pts lower or -1.02% at 2756.38.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 4.507 pts or -0.14% at 3206.923 and the HANG SENG ended 71.98 pts lower or -0.36% at 19688.29.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 81.84 pts or +0.41% at 19989.21, FTSE 100 lower by 11.2 pts or -0.14% at 8212.75, CAC 40 up 47.39 pts or +0.65% at 7329.61 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 40.2 pts or +0.83% at 4911.65.
- Dow Jones mini up 44 pts or +0.1% at 43067, S&P 500 mini up 21.5 pts or +0.36% at 6011, NASDAQ mini up 119.5 pts or +0.56% at 21636.
