EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Hungary: Q2 GDP
(REPHUN; Baa2neg/BBB-neg/BBB) "*HUNGARY PRELIM 2Q GDP RISES 0.1% Y/Y; EST. +0.1% *HUNGARY PRELIM 2...
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STIR: Over 50bp Of BoE Cuts Through Dec Still Priced
GBP STIRs consolidate the modest dovish move seen post-SONIA settlement on Friday.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 20bp of easing for August, 26bp through September, 43bp through November and 53bp through year-end.
- SONIA futures flat to +2.5.
- Those that hold dovish views have not been able to force a sustainable move through 55bp of cuts through year-end in recent sessions.
- Our baseline view continues to look for 2 cuts (August and November) through year-end at this stage, although risks seem skewed to the dovish side given the recent evolution of labour market data.
- In line final Q1 GDP, a wider-than-expected current account deficit and lower tier Lloyds Business Barometer data did little for markets at the open.
- Little of note on the UK calendar for the remainder of the day.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.015 | -20.2 |
Sep-25 | 3.955 | -26.2 |
Nov-25 | 3.786 | -43.1 |
Dec-25 | 3.688 | -52.9 |
Feb-26 | 3.552 | -66.5 |
Mar-26 | 3.509 | -70.8 |
USD: In the red against all the Majors into the European session
- The Dollar is in the red against all the majors at the start of the Week, Risk On Tone and lower Yields have been weighted on hope of trade deals and lower Rates going forward.
- The Yen has benefitted from the lower yields, and while it is the best early performer, up half a percent, it is yet to break last Week's low of 143.75.
- Initial support is seen towards 143.65.
- The Kiwi is the second best performer and Market participants will be keeping a close eye on the 0.6088 level, the June high and highest traded level since 16th October last Year.
- AUDUSD is also challenging that June high, this comes at 0.6564, the best level seen since 12th November.
(Chart source: Bloomberg Finance LP/MNI).
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6300.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6281.12 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 6277.50 High Feb 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 6255.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6254.25 @ 07:21 BST Jun 30
- SUP 1: 6069.53/5952.84 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23
- SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
- SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has started this week on a firm note. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. The 6200.00 handle has been cleared too, this opens 6277.50, Feb 21 high and bull trigger. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 5952.84.
