HUNGARY: Hungary Publishes Law in Gazette Required For EU Funds Release - BBG
Dec-13 12:19
- Bloomberg reported this morning that EUR10bln of funds earmarked for Hungary is set to be released today following legislative changes in Budapest bolstering court independence. No specific timings were disclosed. The latest headline is likely referring to the specific laws required for such disbursement.
- EURHUF broke through its intraday lows just prior to the headline, with losses extending since. The cross is down 0.35% on the day at typing though remains some way off key support at 375.62, the Nov 14 low. A break would resume the downtrend and open 373.98, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 12 - Aug 3 bull leg.
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US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Nov-13 12:11
SOFR and Treasury options trade mixed on lighter volume overnight, option accts plying the sidelines ahead of Tuesday morning's CPI data for October. Underlying futures mildly weaker, curves flatter. Projected rate cut chance into early 2024 ebbs: December at 3.6bp at 5.363%, January 2024 cumulative 7.6bp at 5.403%, while March 2024 pricing in -16.5% chance of a rate cut with cumulative at 3.5bp at 5.361%, May 2024 cumulative -5.2bp at 5.275%. Fed terminal at 5.400% in Feb'24.
- SOFR Options:
- 2,000 SFRF4 94.43/94.50 put spds vs 94.68/94.87 call spds ref 94.64
- 1,000 SFRZ3 94.50/94.56/94.62 put flys ref 94.58
- 1,500 SFRG4 94.68/94.81 call spds
- 1,000 SFRZ3 94.43/94.50/94.56/94.62 put condors ref 94.58
- 2,200 SFRH4 94.37/94.56/94.81 put trees
- 1,000 SFRH4 94.68/94.75/94.81/94.87 call condors ref 94.64
- 3,400 SFRH4 94.68 puts ref 94.64
- Treasury Options:
- over 3,200 TYZ3 107.25 puts
- 3,800 wk3 TY 106.5 puts, 10 ref 107-09
- 9,600 Wed/weekly TY 107.75/108.5/109 broken call trees, 8 ref 107-09
BONDS: Are testing session highs
Nov-13 12:00
- Bund bought in 5k as it test session high, Schatz is also bought in 5k.
- BTP still test that initial gap noted at 112.46, but investors will look at 113.00 for resistance.
- Bund still eye 130.13 initially.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Remain Above Support
Nov-13 11:56
- In the FI space, Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs but - for now - maintain a firmer short-term tone. The recent breach of a key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger, strengthens current bullish conditions and maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 131.33, 76.4% of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg. Firm support to watch is 129.35, the Nov 7 low. A breach would highlight a possible reversal.
- Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded to a fresh high last week, before pulling back. S/T weakness is considered corrective. Price recently cleared 93.82 and 94.52, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above 95.66, the Oct 12 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open 96.71, the Sep 20 high. First support is 94.07, the 50-day EMA.
