NBH: Hungary Minutes Still See Inflation Moderating in 2023
Nov-09 13:05
NBH minutes release here: https://www.mnb.hu/en/monetary-policy/the-monetary...
Minutes highlights:
- Unchanged decision was unanimous
- High-frequency data showed that the Hungarian economic growth had been clearly slowing since early June.
- Inflation expectations remained elevated, while expectations of increases in retail prices had fallen as demand had weakened
- Inflation in Hungary had mainly been fuelled by items outside the scope of monetary policy
- Domestic inflation would decrease slowly in the first half of 2023, and then more significantly from the middle of the year. The consumer price index would return to the central bank tolerance band in the first half of 2024
- Several decision makers pointed out that the rise in domestic inflation had been driven mainly by increases in food and energy prices in recent months and that domestic demand had begun to decline. This, alongside falling global commodity prices indicated a turnaround in domestic inflation as well.
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FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 12/21/51-week BTFs
Oct-10 12:57
| Type | 12-week BTF | 21-week BTF | 51-week BTF |
| Maturity | Jan 4, 2023 | Mar 8, 2023 | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Amount | E2.398bln | E1.746bln | E2bln |
| Target | E2.0-2.4bln | E1.4-1.8bln | E1.6-2.0bln |
| Previous | E2.799bln | E1.5bln | E1.398bln |
| Avg yield | 0.781% | 1.191% | 1.950% |
| Previous | 0.646% | 1.206% | 1.814% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.02x | 2.46x | 2.18x |
| Previous | 2.18x | 4.22x | 3.92x |
| Previous date | Oct 03, 2022 | Oct 03, 2022 | Oct 03, 2022 |
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call fly buyer
Oct-10 12:56
- ERZ2 97.87/98.00/98.12c fly, bought 1.5 in 5k.
- This was also bought on Friday for 1.5 in 19k
EURJPY TECHS: Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA
Oct-10 12:47
- RES 4: 147.76 1.236 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
- RES 3: 145.64 High Sep 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 144.48 High Sep 14
- RES 1: 144.09 High Oct 5
- PRICE: 141.33 @ 13:44 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 140.55 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 139.44/137.40 Low Sep 29 / 26 and key support
- SUP 3: 136.02 Low Aug 25
- SUP 4: 135.52 Low Aug 24
EURJPY has traded lower today. The recent pullback has put prices back below 143.70 resistance - 76.4% of the Sep 12 - 26 downleg. The 50-day EMA, at 140.55, marks the next support. Moving average studies continue to highlight a broader uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 144.09, the Oct 5 high. On the downside, a break of the 50-day EMA would instead strengthen a bearish threat.
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