TWD: HSBC Expects Gradual USD/TWD Downside
The global bank expects lifer FX hedging flows to be patient. It forecasts lower USD/TWD levels by end 2025, but gradually (consistent wit patient hedging flows and slower portfolio outflows).
HSBC: "Taiwan Insurance Bureau’s April data suggests lifers used TWD120bn of their FX volatility reserves in April to absorb their FX losses stemming from a 3.7% TWD appreciation against the USD that month. Considering that there was merely TWD165bn left to absorb FX loss from another 7% appreciation in May, this remaining amount has likely already been depleted in May.
"What would be the implication for lifers’ FX hedging? We think lifers that can resort to other kinds of reserves to offset FX loss may feel less urgency to ramp up hedging in the near term. They could be more patient, waiting for better levels (i.e. less negative NDF points and thus lower costs) to add hedges instead of chasing the suppressed NDF points further down in the near term. This is in line with our medium-term view that USD-TWD is set to remain on a downward trajectory as locals need to increase FX hedging and slow portfolio outflows, but the pace is likely to be gradual. We expect USD-TWD of 29.5 by end-2025. In terms of slowing portfolio outflows, Taiwan Securities Association’s latest data suggests that locals net sold their overseas cash bond holdings in April (by USD1bn) for the first time since December 2021."
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MACRO OUTLOOK: US PPI/Retail Sales And Powell Follow On Thursday [2/2]
- Core PCE implications will then be watched closely in Thursday’s PPI report, and we expect with additional focus on portfolio management after last month’s huge upward revision to February.
- Retail sales, whilst only reported in nominal terms, will offer a keenly awaited look at consumer behavior.
- Real spending moderated to 1.8% annualized in Q1 after 4.0% in Q4 despite likely tariff front-running, with April a good test of how much discretionary spending was pulled forward.
- Finally, Powell provides “Opening Remarks” at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, although he’s allotted twenty minutes so there is scope for more substantive remarks than you’d usually expect. His message at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was one firmly of being in no hurry to cut rates amidst huge uncertainty. He also appeared to put more weight on hard data over soft indicators that appear more stagflationary in nature.
MACRO OUTLOOK: US CPI Offers Look At April Tariff Distortions on Tuesday [1/2]
- The week’s US data calendar is highlighted by CPI inflation on Tuesday although PPI inflation and retail sales reports on Thursday are in close second. All three releases are going to be important, offering further hard data for April in the first month under reciprocal tariffs. What’s more, PPI and retail sales are followed by Fed Chair Powell just ten minutes after their release (more on that below).
- Core CPI inflation is seen accelerating to 0.3% M/M in April, with six unrounded estimates we’ve seen to date averaging 0.27% M/M.
- A potential for a ‘low’ 0.3% aside, it’s still likely a swift acceleration from a particularly soft 0.06% M/M in March which was in large part down to surprisingly abrupt declines in lodging away from home (-3.5%) and airfare (-5.3%) prices.
- This lodging weakness carried over to core PCE inflation back in March, at just 0.03% M/M after a particularly strong 0.50% M/M in February in a large wedge with core CPI at 0.23% M/M.
- Markets currently price a next Fed cut with the September FOMC meeting.
USDCAD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4041 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3943 High May 9
- PRICE: 1.3930 @ 16:06 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4041, the 50-day EMA.
