US DATA: Household Survey Continues To Show Slow, Not Major Deterioration (2/2)
May-02 15:16
In another sign of labor market solidity, the participation rate ticked up 0.1pp to 62.6%, suggesting that participation increased even relative to the solid rise in the labor force (the population grew by an estimated 174k vs the 518k rise in the labor force).
- The increase in the prime-age (25-54) participation rate is of particular note, jumping 0.3pp to 83.6% - a 7-month high (older employees saw slightly higher participation with those younger than prime-age seeing a pullback from March's strong rise).
- Total employment rose 436k for a 2nd consecutive gain (+201k prior) and one of the strongest in the last few years. The last 3 months have seen 49k total employment gains vs 464k in the Establishment survey.
- In a sign of some longer-term damage, though, the percent of the labor force classified as "permanent' job losers stayed at 1.1% but marked a 41-month high on an unrounded basis, with the fourth consecutive monthly rise (+105k, most since Oct 2024).
- In more ambiguous signals from underlying measures: Part-time employment rose 56k, reversing March's 44k drop. And those working part-time for economic reasons fell by 90k after a 157k drop in March, after +460k in February, thus not adding much evidence to labor market loosening.
- From a demographic perspective, one move that stood out was the Bachelors vs non-Bachelors unemployment rate rising to 3.7pp (2.5% vs 6.2%), a 6-month high from 3.2pp prior, though it's hard to make firm conclusions on one month's move.
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FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $586 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
Apr-02 15:15
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $586 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
US: Senator McConnell To Vote Yes On Democratic Tariff Resolution - NBC
Apr-02 15:01
Senator Tim Kaine (D-VT) said that former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) indicated that he will vote yes on a Democratic resolution that would "undo" President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada by challenging the national security justification for their imposition, according to NBC News' Frank Thorpe on X. The resolution is seen as a message exercise as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) would kill the bill in the House, should it pass the Senate.
- For the resolution to pass, Democrats will need at least four Republican votes. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) and moderate Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) have indicated they will vote yes.
- The vote, which will come later today after being punted from yesterday's schedule by Senator Corey Booker's (D-NJ) marathon speech, will put Republicans representing farm and manufacturing states in a challenging position, with polling suggesting that voters are sceptical of Trump's tariffs.
- Republican Senators may feel slightly more emboldened to oppose Trump's agenda after elections in Florida and Wisconsin yesterday provided warning signs that Independents and moderate Republicans are unconvinced by the early period of Trump's administration and the influence of advisor Elon Musk.
- Recognising that a significant Senate Republican rebellion could undermine his 'Liberation Day' announcement, Trump has issued two lengthy statements on Truth Social directly calling on Republicans to oppose the resolution.
TARIFFS: Deutsche Bank Expect Any Relief Rally Will be Short-Lived for Equities
Apr-02 14:59
- On today's market outcomes from the tariffs announcement, Deutsche Bank write that it is hard to see an outcome where we see material and sustained upside for equities.
- They write that even if tariffs are perceived to be on the lenient side, there remains a high degree of uncertainty over how various counties will respond and whether Trump will be more aggressive over time.
- Deutsche Bank see the broader USD reaction as likely to be led by equities and therefore see greater downside risks for the USD, led by the JPY and gold.
