US: House Vote On Rule To Progress OBBB Does Not Look Imminent
Punchbowl's Jake Sherman suggests that a House vote on the "rule" to advance toward a debate and full vote on the "One Big Beautiful Bill" is not imminent, due to insufficient Republican votes at this stage. There is no discernable market reaction to the apparent delay, in part because passage was always likely to be a drawn-out process.
- @JakeSherman on X.com: "HOUSE REPUBLICANS are telling members to go back to their offices. It does not look like a vote on the rule is imminent."
- About 10 minutes earlier Sherman reported: "HOUSE REPUBLICANS are stuck at the moment. They don't have the votes for the rule right now. The floor has been open for nearly 2 hours as the leadership tries to find their way out."
- Fox's Chad Pergram on X.com concurs: "House stuck. Cannot even get to test vote on OBBB - because the pre-test vote is stuck. They don’t even have the votes for that. They may leave the pre-test vote open for an hour. Been open since 2:07 pm et"
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BOC: Instant Answers For BOC Rate Decision Expected Wed
Following are the expected Instant Answers for the Bank of Canada interest-rate decision Wed at 945am EST:
- Overnight Rate Target
- Does the Bank signal it is prepared to LOWER rates in the future?
- Does the Bank signal it is prepared to RAISE rates in the future?
- Does the Bank signal it intends to leave rates on hold?
- Does the Bank mention core inflation has been elevated or above the 2% target for headline CPI?
- Does the Bank say the trade war is boosting inflation or inflation expectations?
- Does the Bank say the risks to growth from the trade war appear to have eased?
EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 and bull trigger / High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 164.26 High May 29
- PRICE: 163.12 @ 16:37 BST Jun 2
- SUP 1: 162.50/161.09 50-day EMA / Low May 23 and key support
- SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
The latest recovery in EURJPY signals the end of the corrective pullback between May 13 - 23. If correct, the move higher also marks a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 165.21, the May 13 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would resume the uptrend.
ECB: Macro Since Last ECB: Growth - PMIs Still Tepid, Disappointing Services
- Q1 national accounts data are of limited use in the current environment of rapid policy changes under from the second Trump administration.
- Governing Council have previously tried to put more focus on hard data, especially whilst watching for any additional passthrough from soft indicators, but consumer and business surveys are likely particularly important for now when trying to capture reactions to latest policy changes.
- The ECB will have had good visibility at May surveys, important considering the easing of US tariff tensions with the US-UK trade pact on May 8 and then more notably the de-escalation in US-China policies on May 12.
- That includes the Eurozone consumer confidence index a little stronger-than-expected in the flash May release at -15.2 (vs -16.0 cons, collection period May 1-19) after - 16.6 in April, although that was still only the strongest since March and significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels. This does however need a caveat that the correlation between consumer confidence and actual consumption is weak, echoing trends in the US.
- More recently, the flash PMIs softened in flash May readings, with the composite falling from 50.4 to 49.5 for its lowest since Nov 2024, led by German weakness at 48.6. Monday’s final May release for manufacturing was unrevised at 49.4 to confirm a small improvement from the 49.0 in April. The final services reading will be published Jun 4 for one final growth steer ahead of the meeting, having surprised in the flash with a slide from 50.1 to 48.9 for its lowest since Jan 2024.
