US: House To Vote On CR Today, Challenge Schumer To Shut Down Government

At 10:20 ET 15:20 BST, the House of Representatives is expected to vote on a 'clean' GOP CR to extend government funding through November 21. Despite regular conservative criticism of CRs, the bill is expected to pass. After which, Speaker Johnson (R-LA) is likely to recess the House until after the October 1 shutdown deadline. 

• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) indicated yesterday the Senate will vote on the CR less than 48 hours before a potential shutdown, effectively challenging Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to swallow the bill or shut down the government.
• Schumer is in a tight position. He was panned in March for endorsing a partisan funding extension. This time around, many Democratic lawmakers and pundits believe a hard line is the only option left to counter OMB Director Russel Vought's move to water down Congress’ authority over spending. And to make a public statement on the GOP’s cuts to healthcare spending ahead of the 2026 midterms.
• Schumer released a (dead-on-arrival) competing CR that calls for the permanent extension of expiring Obamacare tax credits and unwinding swathes of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’. The CBO reports extending ACA subsidies would cost nearly $350 billion through 2035.
• Thune’s argument is twofold, spending discussions should take place within regular appropriations, and Democrats regularly advanced short-term funding bills while in control of Congress.
• According Polymarket, the implied probability of a shutdown is just over 40%, with bettors believing Schumer is more likely to fold than Thune. 

Figure 1: Government Shutdown by October 1

Source: Polymarket