US: House GOP Makes Little Progress In First Week Of Reconcilliation Markups
May-01 09:54
House Republicans have made little progress in the first week of committee markups towards the ‘big beautiful’ reconciliation bill that will cover President Donald Trump’s tax, spending, energy, and border security agenda.
- Although House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) says he is targeting a 26 May deadline for completing the House’s work, more realistically, as Johnson confirmed yesterday, the real deadline is the debt limit X date. That date is likely to come in late summer or autumn, but the Treasury Department is yet to publish a formal projection.
- Over the next three weeks, Johnson’s committee chairs will write up legislation covering a range of thorny issues, including cutting USD$880 billion from Energy & Commerce, making a final decision on scrapping clean energy credits, and coming up to a solution to State and Local Tax (SALT) – an existential political issue for a handful of blue-state House Republicans.
- Republicans on Energy and Commerce are expected to meet again today to bridge the gap between moderates and conservatives on Medicaid cuts, ahead of the critical May 7 markup. Failure to resolve disputes in E&C would have secondary impacts across committees that could delay the entire package.
- Punchbowl News notes that, among other issues this week, the House Ways and Means Committee won’t, "publicly commit to a date to mark up the $4.5 trillion tax title of the reconciliation package, although we’re told May 8 is the target date.”
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TARIFFS: Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs - What to Expect?
Apr-01 09:50
- What we know: Trump, with his cabinet in attendance, will announce the details of his reciprocal tariff plan at 1500ET/2000BST tomorrow, aiming to address "unfair" trade practices with "country-based" tariffs. Sectoral duties will still be implemented, but will not be the focus Wednesday - so don't expect details on Autos, copper, pharma, or otherwise. There will be "no exemptions at this time" - meaning there appears to be little room for bilateral negotiation at this stage.
- What we don't know: Which countries will be targeted, what the outright levies will be, and when they will be effective by. It is also not clear whether tariffs will 'stack' - e.g. whether Aluminium exports to the US from a tariffed country will be double charged. It is also unknown whether goods deemed compliant under USMCA, or other trade agreements, will be exempt, or subject to an outright tariff.
- What does the market expect? There is no real consensus on what the outright tariff % could be, however it's expected that those that maintain the largest relative trade surpluses with the US will be targeted most heavily (including, but not limited to, the EU, China, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea). Average levies are expected to range between 10-20%, but outsized risk remains - particularly considering Trump's recent threats to charge as much as 50% tariffs on Canadian goods in the short-lived rift over Ontario's electricity surcharges.
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Apr-01 09:44
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Apr-01 09:39
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