US: House Debating GOP Megabill, Vote Expected Around 05:00 ET
The US House of Representatives is currently debating the Republican tax and spending reconciliation bill known as the 'One Big Beautiful Bill', with a roll call vote on final passage of the package expected at around 05:00 ET 10:00 BST. LIVESTREAM
- The vote comes after a marathon standoff between GOP leadership and Republican conservatives in the House Rules Committee, which was resolved by an intervention from President Donald Trump. A final procedural vote to advance the package for a full House approved the bill 217-212, with Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) the only Republican to vote 'no'. The vote saw key conservative holdout Rep Chip Roy (R-TX) vote 'yes', suggesting the bill is on track to pass.
- A 'manager's amendment' to the bill includes some minor changes to bolster support from conservatives, including more aggressive language to phase out IRA clear energy tax credits and an accelerated timeline for Medicaid work requirements.
- To get blue-state Republicans onside, the manager's amendment formalises a promise from House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to hike the cap on State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction from $30,000 to $40,000 for those making $500,000 or less.
- Reminder: Johnson can likely only drop three or four votes if all Democrats are present and voting. If the bill is passed, it will be handed to the Senate for the next stage of the process. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has said he wants to send the package to Trump's desk by July 4.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
USDJPY 1.61bn at 140.00 (thu).
USDCAD 1.91bn at 1.3800 (fri).
USDJPY 1.07bn at 140.00 (mon).
- EURUSD: 1.1450 (782mln).
- USDJPY: 140.55 (330mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6400 (804mln).
- USDCNY: 7.3000 (586mln).
- EURSEK: 10.9000 (334mln).
GILTS: Twist Steepening Early Today, Dovish BoE Repricing Extends
Dovish repricing in BoE-dated OIS supports the front end of the curve, while weakness in long end Tsys since Thursday’s close weighs on 10+-Year gilts.
- Futures 92.25 last (92.09-40 range).
- Initial support and resistance unchanged at 91.73/92.63.
- Yields are 3bp lower to 3bp higher, curve twist steepens.
- 2s10s ~10bp below cycle closing highs, last 68.2bp.
- 5s30s ~2.5bp below cycle closing highs, last 133.1bp.
- Risks seem titled towards continued steepening given the UK’s economic and fiscal fragility, while the macro environment adds further weight to that view.
- Illiquid market conditions in the long end and spill over from Tsys have provided further sources of pressure in recent weeks.
- BoE-dated OIS now showing 91bp of cuts through year-end vs. 88bp early today.
- Little of note on the UK calendar on Tuesday, which will leave post-holiday adjustments and macro cues at the fore.
- In addition to the Wednesday risk events outlined in our GBP STIR bullet, note that tomorrow will see the release of public sector finance data and the resulting DMO remit revision. We will provide greater colour on this later today.
SILVER TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.117 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg
- PRICE: $32.476 @ 08:23 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support
Silver is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery undermines a bearish theme. Price has traded through an important resistance around the 50-day EMA - at $32.269. The break higher signals scope for a test of $33.117, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $30.577, the Apr 10 low.
