US: House Budget Committee Reconcilliation Markup Underway Shortly

May-16 12:54

The House Budget Committee is set to gavel in shortly to mark up the Republican tax and spending 'megabill' known as the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'. The markup comes amid a rebellion from conservative deficit hawks and blue-state ‘SALT’ Republicans. LIVESTREAM 

  • Conservatives are furious the ‘megabill’ is set to be marked up without hard numbers from the Congressional Budget Office on the debt implications of the package. CBO chief Phillip Swagel told conservatives yesterday the final score for the Energy and Commerce portion of the package is only likely to be available next week, irking conservatives who believe cuts to Medicaid aren’t deep enough to offset tax cuts and spending.
  • Blue-state Republicans, to whom SALT is an existential political issue, are threatening to torpedo the package if Johnson doesn’t hike the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap higher than the $30,000 currently written into the tax bill.
  • Johnson can only lose two votes in the Budget Committee if all Democrats are present and voting, as expected. The vote will be 'up-down', meaning there is no debate or amendment permitted.
  • Reps Chip Roy (T-TX), Josh Brecheen (R-OK), and Ralph Norman (R-SC) are all potential noes. Rep Brandon Gill (R-TX) could also miss the markup due to parental leave. If conservatives are to back the package, it will likely be due to a 'handshake' agreement from Johnson that the bill will be open to revision in the Rules Committee next week.

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: Stoxx 50 Futs Fail To Close Opening Gap Lower, ASML Continues To Weigh

Apr-16 12:53

Euro Stoxx 50 futures haven’t quite managed to close their opening gap lower (located at 4,901.00). Some light selling pressure seen alongside similar moves in e-minis in recent trade, pushing the contract away from recovery highs to last print -0.7% or so on the day.

  • Our technical analyst’s initial support of note is still some distance away (the April 10 low at 4,664.00), with shorter-term support seen at the 38.2% retracement of the move from the April 7 low to the April 9 high (4,788.23).
  • ASML shares continue to present the biggest drag for the index after a disappointing earnings report, with the name ~4.4% lower on the day.

US TSY OPTIONS: May'25 10Y Call Spread

Apr-16 12:45
  • Approximately 10,000 TYK 112/114 call spds on screen, ref 111-01.5 to -02.5

US TSY OPTIONS: TYM5 114.00 Calls Lifted

Apr-16 12:42

TYM5 114.00 calls paper paid 0-15 on 5K.