GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Hot War Risks in MidEast Spike After Israel Strikes Iran

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Following days and weeks of increasingly febrile speculation and indication that Israel could launch strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the very near future, the Israeli military did just that in the early hours of 13 June. The attacks, labelled ‘Operation Rising Lion’ by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), are the most widespread and targeted strikes by Israel on Iran to date. As well as hitting some of Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites, the attacks consisted of a ‘decapitation’ strategy of eliminating key senior military and scientific personnel. Israel has indicated that the operation is not over, while Iran (and likely its proxies in the region) have already begun to launch retaliatory strikes. 

In this article, we give a briefing on the events overnight and their immediate implications, a round-up of reactions from Israel, Iran, the Middle East and further afield, and some potential scenarios that could emerge in the days and weeks ahead. We also assess the impact of the strikes and the emerging risk of major escalation on oil markets, refineries and natural gas, and on the Israeli shekel currency.