EM LATAM CREDIT: Honduras IMF Disbursement USD160mn - Neutral

Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee (Dove, 2025 FOMC Voter) appears to share Gov Kugler's post-US/China tariff truce sentiments in an interview with the NY Times conducted Monday. Namely, he sees the growth/inflation effects as potentially less pronounced than he had previously assumed, but it doesn't change the situation materially for Fed policy. Indeed he suggested that uncertainty may actually have grown as a result of the latest tariff climbdown,. 

• Goolsbee per the NY Times "said the temporary nature of the deal and the extent of the levies still in place would weigh significantly on the economy. 'It is definitely less impactful stagflationarily than the path they were on... Yet it’s three to five times higher than what it was before, so it is going to have a stagflationary impulse on the economy. It’s going to make growth slower and make prices rise.'"
• He said "'Their statements are coming with explicit recognition that this isn’t permanent and that it’s going to be revisited in the near future,” he said of the White House’s communications about tariffs. 'Part of those announcements are explicitly putting off into the future major decisions, so that’s why it feels like there is in corporate America a lot of sitting on the hands. If they’re sitting on their hands, that backs into the wait-and-see posture of the Fed.'"
• The implication is that a decision on rate cuts could be even further into the future - "'If we could get the dust out of the air, it would make sense to think that rates would be going down,' he said. 'But the bar for action has to be high when there’s so much uncertainty.'"

• RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 1.4037 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4005 High May 12
• PRICE: 1.4004 @ 16:41 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD continues to trade above its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low last Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4037, the 50-day EMA.