EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 144.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 143.16 61.8% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 142.86/94 High Jan 11 / High Dec 28 and key resistance
- RES 1: 142.30 High Jan 25
- PRICE: 141.52 @ 07:07 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 140.47/137.92 Low Jan 23 / Low Jan 19
- SUP 2: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 137.03 Low Aug 29
- SUP 4: 136.02 Low Aug 25
EURJPY is consolidating and remains inside a tight range. The cross is holding on to its recent gains following the bounce from 137.92, the Jan 19 low. The 50-day EMA, at 141.77, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would expose key resistance at 142.86, the Jan 11 high. The broader trend direction is down. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 137.39, Jan 3 low. A break resumes the downtrend.
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EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: 0.8980 High Sep 29
- RES 3: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
- RES 1: 0.8863 High Dec 27
- PRICE: 0.8849 @ 06:55 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 0.8784/19 Low Dec 23 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8690/8593 50-day EMA / Low Dec 15
- SUP 3: 0.8562/47 200-dma / Low Dec 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
EURGBP maintains a bullish short-term tone and the recent break of resistance at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high, has reinforced this theme. This paves the way for a move towards 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies have crossed to highlight a bullish backdrop and this reinforces the current trend direction. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8690, the 50-day EMA. A break would be bearish.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Corrective Bounce Still In Play
- RES 4: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: 4049.50 High Feb 23 (cont)
- RES 2: 4043.00 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 3870.70/3908.00 20-day EMA / Low Dec 9
- PRICE: 3829.00 @ 06:29 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 3646.50 50% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle
- SUP 3: 3580.00 Low Nov 3
- SUP 4: 3552.90 61.8% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle
EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above their recent lows. Price last week tested resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 3870.70 and marks a key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would suggest potential for a stronger recovery. Gains are considered corrective - for now. A reversal lower and a break of 3753.00, the Dec 20 low, would resume the recent downtrend. The bull trigger is at 4043.00, Dec 13 high.
GILT TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 106.18 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 105.29 High Dec 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 103.67/104.31 High Dec 19 / 16
- RES 1: 101.95 High Dec 20
- PRICE: 101.08 @ Close Dec 22
- SUP 1: 100.26 Low Dec 23
- SUP 2: 100.00/99.92 Psychological support / Low Nov 8 (cont)
- SUP 3: 98.15 Low Oct 24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 97.33 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - Nov 25 bull phase
Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract traded lower last week, extending the current bearish leg. The move lower has confirmed a clear break of support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. This has strengthened the current downtrend and signals scope for a deeper pullback - towards the 100.00 psychological support. A break would open 98.15, the Oct 4 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.29, the Dec 15 high.
